EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - USDTRY Trend Condition Remains Bullish
- USDZAR is trading lower. Price remains below the Dec 1 high of 17.9596. The pair has recently retraced a portion of the Nov 30 - Dec 1 bounce. Key support lies at 16.8980, the Nov 30 low. A break of this level is required to reinstate the recent bearish theme. A firm resistance is seen at 17.9384, the 61.8% retracement of the downleg between Oct 13 - Nov 30. This level was pierced on Dec 1, a clear break of it would expose 18.5815, the Oct 13 high.
- The primary trend direction in USDTRY is unchanged and remains up. The 18.6000 handle has recently been breached and the focus is on the 18.70 handle and beyond. The 20-day EMA, at 18.6410, marks the first support.
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GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 0.25% Jan-25 Gilt
Relatively weak auction - particularly for a short-dated gilt. Wide tail of 1.8bp, LAP below the pre-auction mid-price and bid-to-cover below 2x.
| 0.25% Jan-25 Gilt | Previous | |
| Amount | GBP3.50bln | GBP3.50bln |
| Avg yield | 3.347% | 3.182% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.89x | 2.57x |
| Tail | 1.8bp | 0.9bp |
| Avg price | 93.528 | 93.826 |
| Low price | 93.491 | 93.266 |
| Pre-auction mid | 93.512 | 93.233 |
| Previous date | 06-Sep-22 |
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 115-14+ 50.0% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 downleg
- RES 3: 114-17 High Sep 20
- RES 2: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 113-11 High Nov 16
- PRICE: 112-16+ @ 11:19 GMT Nov 23
- SUP 1: 111-25/110-12+ 20-day EMA / Low Nov 10
- SUP 2: 109+10+ Low Nov 04
- SUP 3: 108-26+ Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)
Treasury futures trend conditions remain bullish and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. This month's gains resulted in a break of 112-14, the 50-day EMA. A continuation higher would strengthen bullish conditions and open 113-30, Oct 4 high and a key resistance. On the downside, initial firm support is at 111-25, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement.
EU-RUSSIA: EU Parl't Backs Resolution Calling Russia State Sponsor Of Terrorism
MEPs have voted in favour of a resolution labelling Russia a 'state sponsor of terrorism', with 494 voting in favour, 58 against and 44 abstaining. The European Parliament has sought to encourage all member states to adopt the same designation.
- At present, only individuals or organisations can be blacklisted by EU sanctions. The Parliament is backing a legal change to allow entire countries to be placed on the sanctions list, in a similar system to that used in the United States. This would hugely restrict the level of interaction on a trade and diplomatic level (already largely cut off) and punish third-party nations engaging in trade with Russia, particularly those supposedly supplying weapons to Moscow (i.e. Iran).
- However, this change would require unanimous approval from EU member states. The prospect of getting perennial holdout Hungary to back such a change at present remains an unlikely prospect.
