UK: Larger than expected NI cut likely to reduce rate cut expectations
Nov-22 13:33
That larger than expected NI cut is likely to reduce expectations for Bank Rate cuts next year - it's hard to argue it won't be inflationary.
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EQUITIES: Stock Futures Off Lows Through Cash Open, But Remain Weak
Oct-23 13:32
- Headed through into the Monday cash open, e-mini S&P just off the 4-month lows posted during the European morning, but futures still point to a negative open of 0.40-0.43% across the main three indices.
- The (very modest) recovery off lows for headline indices coincided with Reuters confirming that China state fund Central Huijin Investment had bought ETFs on Monday, allowing the e-mini S&P to steer clear of a test of next support at 4194.75, the May 24 low.
- Nonetheless, the bear trigger at 4235.50 has been cleared, prompting a deterioration of the near-term outlook.
- Focus remains on US financial conditions and the state of the yield curve (and this week's advance GDP print) as well as the busiest week of the quarter for the corporate earnings cycle, with 38% of the index set to report.
- Full expectations and timings here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/56296/MNIUSE...
CANADA: USDCAD Touches Session Low But Still Rangebound
Oct-23 13:29
- USDCAD at 1.3701 has pushed a new session low as it pulls back from an earlier high of 1.3737 as the S&P e-mini has held a move off session lows ahead of the cash open, albeit still down solidly on the day (-0.45%).
- The pair has for the most part remained within yesterday’s range though. Support is still seen at 1.3569 (Oct 10 low) and resistance at a bull trigger at 1.3786 (Oct 5 high).
- With very much lower tier data releases out the way, geopolitical risk and broader sentiment likely remains the main drivers ahead.
- Friday’s CFTC latest data showed CAD net shorts broadly consolidating the prior step higher, at 26% OI for the largest net short positions since May (for futures).
STIR: Dec'23, Mar'24 SOFR Puts, Put Spds
Oct-23 13:21
- +10,000 SFRZ3 94.50/94.62 2x1 put spds, 0.5-0.75
- +5,000 SFRH4 94.50 puts, 14.5 ref 94.65
