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• The latest phase of dollar weakness is most notable against the likes of AUD and NZD, as softer crude and higher equity benchmarks emphasise the more favourable risk backdrop, driven by rising optimism surrounding US/Iran negotiations.
• For AUDUSD, a 0.7% rally today has extended the recovery from the March lows to over 4.5%, as retreating vol also bolsters the AUD carry profile (see chart below). Moving average studies highlight a dominant uptrend and the focus is now suddenly back on the cycle highs at 0.7187. Above here, one of the key targets is located at 0.7277, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low.
• Today’s move has shrugged off the Australian data overnight, where consumer and business confidence indicators came in much softer-than-expected. Australian employment data is scheduled Thursday, where consensus expects the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3%.
• March labour market data will help update that assessment and provide an insight into the economy's excess capacity at the end of Q1. The RBA has described the labour market as a "little bit tight" recently.

Source: MNI/Bloomberg

The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP5bln of the 4.00% May-29 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BVP99566) at its auction next Tuesday, April 21.

What she said specifically on scenarios:

• We are inbetween the baseline and the adverse. We have baseline -> adverse -> severe.
• We are somewhere, I think, between the baseline and the adverse scenario.
• Asked how quickly that can change: "It changes everyday. We have to take a medium-term view [for policymaking]."

Seeing the Euribor strip rise on these subsequent headlines, ERZ6 now at 97.325 vs 97.300 before Lagarde starting speaking: 

"*LAGARDE: ECB DOESN'T HAVE TIGHTENING BIAS" bbg
*LAGARDE: WOULD NEED DATA TO ACT, WOULDN'T HESITATE"