UKRAINE: Kyiv Ready For Ceasefire Talks But RTRS Reports Russia Sceptical
Speaking in the Polish capital, Warsaw, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha says that the Ukrainian gov't is 'ready to form a team to work on a roadmap to reach a ceasefire with Russia,' adds that 'Ukraine is the country that wants the war to end the most', and 'wants a just peace'. This comes after the 11 March talks between Ukrainian officials (including Sybiha) and their US counterparts in Saudi Arabia. In the wake of the talks the US has restored aid to and intelligence sharing with the United States and is now seeking to push Russia towards accepting Ukraine's proposed 30-day ceasefire.
- US President Donald Trump has said that he will seek to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming days to push a ceasefire.
- Reuters reports that, according to a senior Russian source, "It is difficult for Putin to agree to this in its current form," the source, [...] told Reuters. "Putin has a strong position because Russia is advancing." The source said that without guarantees alongside a ceasefire, Russia's position could swiftly become weaker and that Russia could then be blamed by the West for failing to end the war." The article reports another Russian source saying that the main focus should be on the US' resumption in aid and intel that has been 'decorated' in the ceasefire proposal.
- Alongside Sybiha, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, who has engaged in a spat with Rubio and Elon Musk in recent days, confirmed that the supplies of arms from Poland to Ukraine has resumed and that Starlinks are working.
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STIR: Latest Tariff Threats Keep Pressure On EUR Implied Rates
ECB-dated OIS have held onto the dovish repricing seen into Friday’s close, with US President Trump’s weekend tariff threats on steel/aluminium imports keeping the pressure on EUR implied rates. 87bps of ECB easing are priced through year-end at typing.
- OIS continue to fully price a 25bp cut in March, with 19bps of sequential cuts priced through the April and June decisions. 25bp cuts at the next three gatherings would bring the deposit rate to 2.00%, in the middle of the ECB’s heavily caveated 1.75-2.25% neutral range.
- In a podcast with Bloomberg released Friday, ECB Chief Economist Lane described neutral as a “hypothetical conjecture”, as it assumes a shock-free economy. In Lane’s words: “What's the probability the world won't face any more shocks in the next year?”.
- Euribor futures are -0.5 to +1.5 ticks through the blues, with a light flattening bias seen.
- The February Sentix survey is due at 0930GMT, but isn’t usually a market mover. That leaves focus on ECB President Lagarde’s appearance at the EU Parliament at 1400GMT.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.418 | -24.8 |
| Apr-25 | 2.232 | -43.3 |
| Jun-25 | 2.043 | -62.2 |
| Jul-25 | 1.960 | -70.5 |
| Sep-25 | 1.872 | -79.3 |
| Oct-25 | 1.849 | -81.6 |
| Dec-25 | 1.804 | -86.1 |
| Feb-26 | 1.801 | -86.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
BUNDS: /SWAPS: Long End ASWs Remain Under Pressure
The long end of the ASW spread curve continues to trade heavily, both in relative terms against Schatz and outright.
- Buxl ASW vs. 3-month Euribor registered a fresh cycle closing low on Friday, with increased free float and German issuance/fiscal risks continuing to weigh.
- These fundamental sources of pressure mean that relief episodes in long swap spreads remains contained, even when bonds manage to rally in outright trade.
- Meanwhile, repo/collateral dynamics have seemingly been binding in the front end of the ASW curve, preventing Schatz spread tightening towards ’24 lows.
- Still, J.P.Morgan go against the trend and recommend a tactical Bund swap spread paid position against the Schatz equivalent, given what they deem to be “attractive valuations.” They also suggest that their “2s/10s German cash bond curve flattening bias is also supportive of a steeper swap spread curve.”
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 2: $33.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $32.652 - High Feb 7
- PRICE: $32.160 @ 08:11 GMT Feb 10
- SUP 1: $30.814 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
Silver traded higher last week. Key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high, has been pierced. Clearance of this hurdle would highlight a stronger reversal and cancel a recent bearish theme. This would open the $33.00 handle and expose $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm support lies at $30.814, the 50-day EMA and a pivot level. A clear break of the EMA would reinstate the recent bearish theme.
