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• That is a big downward surprise to the single month private regular AWE which came in at 4.21%Y/Y in September. That follows 4.51% in July and 4.55% in June (neither of which were revised).
• That is the lowest M/M rise (0.11%) since March.
• Recall that the BOE's forecast is for 4.62%Y/Y in the 3-months to September. If we assumed we saw another single month Y/Y print in September the same as today's that would lead to a 0.3ppt downward surprise to the BOE's forecast.
• PAYE median monthly pay also saw a decent downside surprise, falling 1ppt to 5.51%Y/Y.
• Bailey cited that in August one of the reasons he voted for a cut was the downside surprise to the Bank's wage growth forecasts. That was based on a 0.4ppt downside surprise, so we are getting closer to a similar level of miss here.
• We have also see the unemployment rate increase to 4.83% from 4.66% despite only marginal changes to the economic activity rate. While the V/U ratio has fallen further to 0.41 (from 0.42 last month which was revised down from 0.43).
• As noted above, the main bright spot in the report is payrolls revisions. September M/M was broadly in line falling 9.8k (-11k exp) but there was an upward revision to August from -7.7k to +9.6k and August was also revised higher. This means that payrolls look to have stabilised rather than fall over the past 3-months now.
• The claimant count rate was 4.4% and showed a decent rise in September, but the rise in August was revised away.

• RES 4: $76.82 - 2.382 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $75.43 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $69.87/71.20 - High Sep 26 / High Jul 30 and key resistance 
• RES 1: $66.20 - 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: $63.04 @ 07:10 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: $62.00 - Low Oct 10 
• SUP 2: $60.85 - Low May 30 
• SUP 3: $58.50 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.88 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

A bearish threat in Brent futures remains present and last Friday’s move down reinforces this theme. The break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend - support at $64.00 has been breached. The move down also maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on a weakness towards $60.85, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $69.87, the Sep 26 high.

• RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 179.91 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger   
• PRICE: 175.88 @ 07:15 BST Oct 14
• SUP 1: 175.67 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 2: 174.87 20-day EMA   
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart    
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend set-up in EURJPY is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. First key support to watch lies at 174.87, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, the cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. A reversal higher would open 178.94, a Fibonacci projection.