ASIA FX: KRW, IDR & THB All Weaker, Amid Broad USD Gains
USD/Asia pairs are higher across the board, although USD/INR is an exception, holding steady in early trade. Broader USD gains are evident, amid on-going tariffs threats from the Trump administration, while US Tsy yields have ticked up. The regional equity backdrop is mostly lower as well.
- USD/CNH is tracking close to 7.2740, very close to the 20-day EMA resistance point. The USD/CNY fixing continues to nudge higher, while earlier remarks from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick around China being his biggest concern and that they won't let China cars come into the US (As part of Fox News interview) suggest it will be difficult to bring down US/China trade/investment tensions.
- Spot USD/KRW has risen to 1442/43, weaker in won terms by 0.65%. Spill over from tariff concerns will be weighing on the won. Local equities are also off close to 1%, with offshore investors continuing to sell local holdings. These moves for USD/KRW put us back above 20 and 50-day EMA resistance.
- USD/THB is also up around 0.60%, the pair last near 33.90. This follows yesterday's surprise BoT cut (although there were some sell-side analysts forecasting the move). We are back close to the 50-day EMA at 33.95.
- USD/IDR is pushing above 16400, last near 16440, which is close to earlier Feb highs of 16471. BI has been on the newswires stating it has intervened in markets. Onshore equities have slumped 2%, tracking to fresh multi year lows.
- USD/MYR is back above 4.4400, while USD/SGD has risen to 1.3410/15. USD/PHP is little changed, last near 57.90, leaving PHP modestly outperforming. USD/INR is near 87.20/25, steady so far.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Tests Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2520/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27
- PRICE: 1.2445 @ 06:00 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: 1.2387/2294 20-day EMA / Low Jan 23
- SUP 2: 1.2229 Low Jan 21
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play. The pair has cleared the 20-day EMA, marking an extension of the reversal that started Jan 13. Attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2520 and an important resistance. Clearance of the average would highlight a stronger bull cycle. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bearish. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 1.2100, the Jan 10 low and bear trigger.
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 117.820 High Jan 3
- RES 3: 117.627 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 117.490 Low Dec 30
- RES 1: 117.133/180 20-day EMA / High Jan 22
- PRICE: 116.800 @ 05:37 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: 116.550/280 Low Jan 24 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
A short-term bullish corrective phase in Bobl futures is in play - for now - despite the pullback from its recent highs. The Jan 15 rally highlighted a reversal and the start of the correction. An extension higher would allow an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.133, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, Jan 14 / 15 low, would resume the downtrend.
EURUSD TECHS: Support Lies At The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.0696 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 2: 1.0574 38.2% retracement of the Sep 25 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.0533 High Jan 27
- PRICE: 1.0438 @ 05:48 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: 1.0388 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.0260 Low Jan 15
- SUP 3: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
EURUSD remains in a short-term bull cycle - a correction - and continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The pair has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 1.0459. A clear break of it would strengthen short-term bullish conditions and signal scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 1.0574, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial support to watch is 1.0388, the 20-day EMA. A move through the EMA would signal a possible reversal.
