US-RUSSIA: Kremlin: Next Trilateral Talks In Geneva, 17-18 Feb
Feb-13 11:13
Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov confirms that the next round of Russia-Ukraine-US peace talks will take place on 17-18 February in Geneva, Switzerland. The Russian delegation will be led by Vladimir Medinsky, an aide to President Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated on 12 Feb that talks could take place in the US, but it appears a neutral venue was preferred.
- Medinsky, a former Russian culture minister, is viewed as a hardline nationalist, and his heading the delegation at the initial Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul in 2022 and again in 2025 was viewed as a snub to Kyiv and a sign that Moscow was not taking talks seriously.
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EGB SYNDICATION: France 20-year May-46: Launched
Jan-14 11:06
- Size: E10bln (top of the E8-10bln range MNI expected)
- Books closed in excess of E106bln pre-rec (inc E4bln JLM interest)
- Spread set: 3.25% May-45 OAT + 5bp (guidance was + 8bp area)
- Maturity: 25 May 2046
- Coupon: First full
- ISIN: TBC
- Settlement: 21 January 2026 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: BNPP, Citi (B&D), HSBC, JPM, SocGen
- Timing: Books closed. Allocations and pricing later today.
From market source / MNI colour
SWAPS: EUR 10s30s Curve & 50s Re-Anchor To Round Numbers
Jan-14 11:02
The EUR swap curve bull flattens alongside the recent move lower in yields.
- Some have suggested that the comments from Iran, noting that the country’s missile stockpile has increased since June and indicating a willingness to respond to attacks from any external sources, provided the bid for wider core global FI and weakness for equities.
- EUR swap rates last flat to 1.5bp lower on the day. 50s have re-anchored to 3.00% after PFZW’s Monday announcement revealed higher post-transition hedging requirements than previously envisaged, while the 10s30s curve has re-anchored to 30bp.
- Sensitivity to headlines related to the Dutch pension transition remain evident, with the move to a defined contribution setup from defined benefit presenting well-documented medium-term structural pay-side & steepening risks for the space.
- Commerzbank note that their analysis of the rate sensitivity of the Dutch pension funds swap book remains unchanged, still implying DV01 of ~EUR730mln at the 20-Year point after accounting for FX hedges.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Pullback In S&PE-Minis Appears Corrective
Jan-14 11:00
- In the equity space, the trend structure in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback - for - appears corrective. A fresh cycle high yesterday reinforces current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 7036.74, the 0.764 projection of the Dec 18 - 26 - Jan 2 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at 6947.24, the 20-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures is intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The 6000.00 handle has been breached, signalling scope for 6086.99 next, a 1.236 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing. Initial firm support to watch is 5874.28, the 20-day EMA.
