RUSSIA: Kremlin Confirms New Rus-US-Ukr Talks Next Week
State-run Tass reports comments from Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov. Says that a new round of peace talks on Ukraine will take place next week. On 12 Feb, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had raised the prospect of tripartite talks between the US, Ukraine, and Russia taking place in the US on 17 or 18 Feb, but said it was unclear if Russia would accept. Peskov said, "There's an agreement that it will indeed take place next week. We'll let you know the location and exact dates. But it will indeed be next week,"
- There is no comment from Peskov on reports that European countries could look to hold separate talks with Russia. Speaking to Le Monde earlier in the week, French President Emmanuel Macron said "It is important to structure the resumption of a European discussion with the Russians, without naivety, without putting pressure on the Ukrainians, but so as not to depend on a third party." These efforts have made little progress to date, with France's E3 partners, Germany and the UK, both wary of resuming talks with Russia with concerns it could undermine the US and Ukrainian efforts to reach a peace deal.
- Following on from reports on 12 Feb that Russia could embrace the US dollar again in an effort to boost economic ties with Washington, Peskov says that the two countries have discussed trade and economic cooperation, but that "it's unlikely that such discussions will move beyond talk before the conflict in Ukraine is settled." Nevertheless, following the reports Peskov says "it's obvious that Moscow is proposing cooperation", and that "Russia did not decide to stop using the dollar, the US imposed restrictions."
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STIR: GBP 1y1y Threatens Base Of Wedge Pattern, Labour Market Key
Early ’26 has seen GBP 1y1y threaten a break below the base of the wedge pattern that has formed in recent months (3.3883% today), with ongoing weakness in the UK labour market and a swifter than previously envisaged disinflationary process generating a dovish move.
- Still, a meaningful move lower from here probably requires a more dovish tone being struck at the BoE (after the ‘hawkish’ cut seen at the final ’25 meeting) or fresh cues from macro data, with the market unable to fully discount a cumulative 50bp of easing through year-end at this stage.
- Further deterioration on the quantity side of the labour market presents the most obvious potential short-term dovish catalyst, in our view.
- Thie latest KPMG-REC report on jobs added to the run of soft labour market readings (on the quantity side) on Monday.
- The next monthly ONS labour market report is due on Tuesday of next week.
- Fresh dovish impetus would place focus on the year-to-date low (3.3642%), which protects the May ’25 base (3.3429%).
- Meanwhile, a firmer-than-envisaged outcome on either the quantity or wage side in next week’s data could alleviate some of the recent dovish pressure.
Fig. 1: GBP 1y1y (%)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
EGB SYNDICATION: France 20-year May-46 : Spread set
- Size: EUR benchmark (MNI expects E8-10bln)
- Books in excess of E115bln (inc E4bln JLM interest)
- Spread set: 3.25% May-45 OAT + 5bp (guidance was + 8bp area)
- Maturity: 25 May 2046
- Coupon: First full
- ISIN: TBC
- Settlement: 21 January 2026 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: BNPP, Citi (B&D), HSBC, JPM, SocGen
- Timing: Books to close at 10:15GMT / 11:15CET, today's business
From market source / MNI colour
EQUITY OPTIONS: Estoxx Call Spread
SX5E (20th Feb) 6150/6250cs, bought for 20.5 and 20.7 in 7.5k.
