ASIA STOCKS: KOSPI Reaches Overbought as AI/Tech Rallies Again
The AI / tech rally continued today with key stocks like Samsung in Korea up +5.6%, TSMC in Taiwan +6.3% and Softbank in Tokyo +4% to help their respective bourses post strong gains. However the theme of China's key AI / tech stocks underperforming regional peers continues with Tencent in Hong Kong up just +0.15% today. Whilst the US ousting of Venezuela's president initially caused oil price volatility, Asian markets largely brushed off these tensions, maintaining their positivity throughout the day.
- The NIKKEI is gaining 3% today to 51,849 to be within 1% of the October high whilst the KOSPI jumped 3.10% to 4,442 and trend above the overbought line on the 14-day relative strength index. Joining in the AI / tech led party was the TAIEX which jumped +2.7% to a new high of 30,153 as it too reached overbought. There are growing calls from market observers as to the heated valuations from AI / tech stocks. SK Hynix in Korea for example is now up over 300% since its lows of April 2025.
- China's bourses were more subdued with the Hang Seng down -0.08% whilst the CSI 300 rose +1.5%, Shanghai +1.07% and Shenzhen +1.66%. For the Shanghai Comp, the rise above 4,000 to 4,011 brings the November high of 4,029 into its sights.
- SE Asia's major bourses all posted gains with the SE Thai outperforming following a much stronger than expected December PMI manufacturing. The SE Thai is up +1.7%, whilst the Jakarta Composite is up +0.65% and the FTSE Malay +0.34%
- India's NIFTY 50 continues to exhibit lower volatility relative to regional peers as it resets new highs. At 26,360 it remains up almost 20% from the March lows with gains of +0.15% Monday . The NIFTY 50 finished 2025 marginally below the 5-Year high of 23.50x, but is above the full year 2026 forecast. This suggests that from a valuation perspective, any near-term pressures on equities may not come from valuations though with the equity dividend yield at 1.26%, equity valuations relative to bonds look expensive.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bull Channel Breakout
- RES 4: 1.4140 High Nov 5 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4131 High Nov 21
- RES 2: 1.4051 High Nov 28
- RES 1: 1.3939/4016 Low Nov 28 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3865 @ 16:35 GMT Dec 5
- SUP 1: 1.3853 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.3840 50.0% retracement of the Jun 16 - Nov 6 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3812 Low Sep 23
- SUP 4: 1.3779 Low Sep 22
A bear theme in USDCAD remains intact and Friday’s strong sell-off reinforces a bear theme. The pair has breached an important support at 1.3942, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The break highlights a stronger bear cycle and signals scope for an extension towards 1.3840 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4016, 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: US Week Ahead: FOMC Decision Dominates, Post Shutdown Data Catch-Up
- Next week’s US calendar is dominated by the FOMC decision on Wednesday, with a third consecutive 25bp cut almost fully priced.
- Expect it to be a contentious meeting however, with many arguing for a pause not least whilst they’re still relatively in the dark on key official data releases following the government shutdown.
- Fed Chair Powell opted for a surprisingly hawkish tone at the late October press conference, highlighting a deeply divided committee on prospects for another cut in December.
- The “fog” had appeared to win out until NY Fed’s Williams, a senior permanent voter, gave unusually explicit guidance on still seeing room “for a further adjustment in the near term”. With no pushback from FOMC members or media briefings, it appears this message has approval from the core of the FOMC which should be enough to see a rate cut this month. The likely catalyst was the further increase in the unemployment rate to 4.44% back in September, although subsequent tracking suggests stabilization and jobless claims data don’t show any signs of deterioration.
- We’ll be looking for the number of hawkish dissents (we’d be surprised if anyone joins Miran dissenting for a 50bp cut) and expect a greater number to object to a cut in the 2025 dot plot, whilst the distribution of dots for 2026 should be in greater focus.
- As for the economic projections, we expect upward revisions to GDP growth but downward revisions to near-term core PCE inflation with tariff passthrough proving less severe than previously feared.
Aside from the Fed, we also receive two months worth of JOLTS data along with other delayed releases as the shutdown data backlog is slowly caught up.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Impulsive Wave Extends
- RES 4: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6660 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 0.6649 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6630 @ 16:32 GMT Dec 5
- SUP 1: 0.6580/6533 High Nov 13 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6517 Low Nov 27
- SUP 3: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21
- SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
A strong impulsive bull wave in AUDUSD remains intact, having printed 10 consecutive sessions of higher highs. Recent gains have cleared a number of important short-term resistance points, strengthening a bull theme and highlighting scope for a continuation higher. Today’s rally has resulted in a breach of 0.6640, 76.4% of the Sep 17 - Nov 21 bear leg. This opens 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and key resistance. Key support to watch is at 0.6533, 20-day EMA.
