CZK: Koruna Ticks Lower Along CE3 Peers
Hawkish CNB guidance keeps EUR/CZK near its multi-year lows, even as the pair has edged higher this morning. It last deals +0.023 at 24.477 and bulls continued to eye the 50-DMA, which intersects at 24.657. On the flip side, bears look for a dip towards Nov 29, 2023 low of 24.203.
- Local headline flow has provided little in the way of meaningful price catalysts. From a regional perspective, the focus is on the upcoming Trump-Putin talks.
- CZGB yields have trended lower, curve runs steeper. The PX Index is virtually unchanged on the day.
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SONIA OPTIONS: SFIM6 97.40/97.50 Call Spread Lifted
SFIM6 97.40/97.50 call spread paper paid 1.25 on 10K.
BONDS: Most Of Rally Holds, Curves Flatter
Still no clear driver for the extension of rally in bonds, that was seemingly led by EGBs.
- Major core global FI curves flatten.
- The previously covered FV/US block flattener will have aided the direction of travel, but the fact that the move was EGB-driven negates that as a primary driver.
- Bearish technical themes intact across the major futures contracts.
EU-RUSSIA: Foreign Ministers Look To Sign-Off On 18th Sanctions Package
Foreign ministers from across the EU are meeting in Brussels as they aim to sign off on the 18th package of sanctions against Russia, which is set to include a lower dynamic oil price cap. The process has been held up for some time due to objections from Slovakia. Bratislava's objections have not specifically been about this sanctions package, but regarding the EU's efforts to impose a phase-out of all Russian hydrocarbons.
- The Slovakian gov't argues the phase-out poses threats to its energy security, but it can be approved against Slovakia's wishes, given that it only requires a qualified majority. The sanctions package on the other hand requires unanimity, with the gov't of PM Robert Fico effectively holding the sanctions 'hostage' until a compromise is reached on the phase out.
- Over the weekend, Fico claimed that his gov't would look to have a deal done by today's foreign ministers' meeting, saying “We want to resolve this by Tuesday because tensions are rising on all sides," while hinting at compromise when adding "We need to win something in this fight, though it will not be a 100-0 result...We want political commitments, guarantees from partners and the Commission that this problem will not remain only on Slovakia's back."
- Politico reports that a holdup by Malta at last week's Coreper II meeting has been dealt with and should not prove an obstacle to the package being agreed to today.
- EU High Commissioner for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas will deliver a post-meeting presser at ~16:45CET (10:45ET, 15:45BST).
