EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA): Resilient Fiscal

• EUR/USD: $1.1600(E2.5bln), $1.1650(E1.0bln), $1.1675(E704mln), $1.1700-05(E1.9bln)
• USD/JPY: Y155.00($1.2bln), Y156.00($655mln), Y161.45($564mln), Y162.50($592mln)
• GBP/USD: $1.3400(Gbp819mln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6850(A$955mln), $0.6965(A$966mln)
• NZD/USD: $0.5810(N$606mln)

Existing home sales fell sharply in March, from 4.13M to 3.98M, marking the joint-lowest since September 2024 and below the expected 4.05M.

• Current sales represent the equivalent of 4.1 months of supply, the highest ratio since November, suggesting loosening supply conditions. There was a decline in sales in each of the four US regions, though median sales prices (NSA) were up 1.4%.
• The pullback shouldn't be a major surprise, given the sharp drop in pending home sales (leading indicator of existing sales) in both December and January to the lowest level in series history (going back to at least 2001) before a modest bounce in February.
• And likewise it shouldn't be a surprise that rising mortgage rates and rising uncertainty given the war in the Middle East and its impact on inflation. The NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted "Lower consumer confidence and softer job growth continue to hold back buyers.”
• It was a weak housing market going into the conflict, including plummeting new home sales in January (we don't get Feb/Mar data until early May) and it would be surprising if there was anything resembling a near-term recovery in the coming months given multiple headwinds.

Trump on Truth Social: "Iran’s Navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated - 158 ships. What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, “fast attack ships,” because we did not consider them much of a threat. Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea. It is quick and brutal. P.S. 98.2% of Drugs coming into the U.S. by Ocean or Sea have STOPPED! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT"