US CREDIT HEADLINE: Kimco Realty (KIM): 3Q25 Results
Kimco Realty: 3Q25 Results
(KIM; Baa1pos/A-/A-)
Beat and raises guidance. Credit positive results. Results puts KIM on path for last upgrade from Moody’s (S&P moved last month to A-). KIM bonds currently trade cheap relative to other A- REIT comps like O and REG.
• Total revenues were $536m, better than BBG consensus of $524m
• Occupancy was 95.7%. Small shop occupancy was 92.5% (all time high).
• Anchor tenants 53% of portfolio. 4% annual base rent YOY growth.
• SS NOI growth of 1.9% due mostly to rent increases.
• EBITDA was $377m, better than consensus of $373m
• Net Income of $130 was ahead of consensus of $115m and essentially flat to last year.
• FFO/sh of $0.44 /sh was just above consensus of $0.43/sh
• Net debt/EBITDA reported at 5.6x. $2.2b in liquidity. No maturities left for FY25, $773m in maturities in FY26.
• YTD FY25 has completed acquisitions of $198m and dispositions of $101m. Net structured investments of $53m.
• For FY25, KIM raised its guidance. FFO/sh now expected at $1.75-1.76/sh, up from $1.73-1.75/sh. SS NOI growth still expected at 3.0%. Net acquisitions should be between $100-125m. Capex should now be between $275-300m and FCF should be $125m.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Larger Dec'25 5Y Sale
Appears the CME added this one to the tick well after the fact:
- -13,000 FVZ5 109-07.75 at 0850:01ET, DV01 $570,500.
- The 5Y contract trades 109-07.75 last (+2.75)
FOREX: USDJPY Consolidating Close to Session Lows
- USDJPY has struggled to regain the 148 handle as the US session progresses, with the pair operating just 15 pips off the overnight session lows at 147.83. Bearish dollar momentum continues to be a function of the concerns related to the US government shutdown, with some analysts citing the JPY as the preferred vehicle to capitalise on these developments.
- ING stated that the looming shutdown is raising some upside risks for EURUSD, which may test 1.180 in the next couple of days, although they still think JPY remains a more attractive way to play the shutdown.
- Additionally, MUFG forecast the BoJ to resume rate hikes as soon as the October policy meeting – subject to the view that Shinjiro Koizumi wins the leadership election. A poll of lawmakers from the governing LDP ahead of its presidential election on Oct 04 cements Koizumi as the clear favourite to take over from Shigeru Ishiba as party leader.
- Latest USDJPY price action sees us narrowing the gap to initial support which lies at 147.59, the 50-day EMA. Stronger pivot support has been defined at 145.49, the Sep 17 and post-Fed low.
- The focus today shifts back to US data with the closely monitored JOLTS report for August and consumer confidence data for September due at 1500BST/1000ET. ISM manufacturing headlines tomorrow’s docket, with a potentially more significant ADP employment release subject to developments regarding the shutdown.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'25 2Y Sale Pre-Data
- -7,500 TUZ5 104-06, post time bid at 0858:04ET, DV01 $297,600.
- The 2Y contract trades 104-05.88 last (+1.25)
