IRAN: Khamenei-Iran Will Guard Nuclear Capabilities Like They Does Its Borders

• On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. Short-term trend signals are bearish and the recovery from the Mar 23 low is considered corrective. Note that the downtrend is in oversold territory and a stronger corrective bounce would allow this condition to unwind. Key near-term resistance is at $4806.6, the 50-day EMA. For bears, a resumption of the bear leg would open $3945.2, a 1.236 projection of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 - Mar 2 price swing.
• A bull wave in WTI futures remains intact and the sharp pullback on Mar 23 has proved to be corrective. A bullish start to this week’s session reinforces the bull theme. A key support zone to monitor is the area between $89.64 - $78.60, the 20- and 50-day EMA values. On the upside, sights are on $113.41, the Mar 9 high and bull trigger.

• Bund is falling back towards level it was trading at going into the EU Equity Cash Open, was trading around 125.08.
• WTI is making an attempt at $105 which could be helping here.
• Some Investors are fully convinced that Trump is willing to end the conflict with Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed (as per WSJ Overnight).
• The latest news from the Times of Israel: "The Israeli Air Force will complete targeting all of the “critical” assets of Iran’s military production industries by tomorrow, according to the IDF."

Treasuries have pared earlier gains but mostly remain mildly firmer overnight in contained reaction to the WSJ reporting that President Trump is willing to end operations in Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Going against that, Iran struck a fully laden Kuwait oil tanker off Dubai. Today sees a press conference with Hegseth and General Caine at 0800ET in initial focus, a semi-regular occurrence rather than a one-off, before mid-US morning data. 

• Cash yields range from 0.4bp higher (2s) to 1.2bp lower (5s), with the belly continuing to lead declines after yesterday saw the largest daily decline in the 5Y real yield since the start of the US-Israel-Iran war.
• TYM6 trades at 110-26+ (+00+) off an earlier high of 111-02, on solid cumulative volumes of 475k.
• That earlier high probed resistance at 111-01+ (Mar 25 high) after which lies 111-10+ (20-day EMA). Gains are considered corrective however, with a bear cycle intact and support seen at 109-24 (Mar 27 low).
• Data: FHFA and S&P Cotality house prices Jan (0900ET), MNI Chicago PMI Mar (0945ET), JOLTS report Feb (1000ET), Conference Board consumer survey Mar (1000ET), Dallas Fed services Mar (1030ET)
• Fedspeak: Goolsbee (1200ET), Schmid (1310ET), Barr (1500ET), Bowman (1710ET) – see FED bullet
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $75B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
• Politics: Hegseth/General Caine press conference (0800ET), Trump in policy meetings (1500ET/1600ET), Trump attends Chicago opening night (1930ET)