USDJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 145.11 Low Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
- RES 3: 143.18 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
- RES 1: 139.64/142.25 High Nov 24 / High Nov 21 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 139.26 @ 15:50 GMT Nov 25
- SUP 1: 137.68 Low Nov 15 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 137.37 Low Aug 29
- SUP 3: 135.82 Low Aug 23
- SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg
Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish and the pair traded lower Thursday. The reversal from Tuesday’s high of 142.25 signals the end of the corrective bounce between Nov 15 - 22. Attention is on the bear trigger at 137.68, the Nov 15 low where a break would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 137.37, the Aug 29 low. Key short-term resistance is seen at 142.25.
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EURJPY TECHS: Holding On To Monday’s Gains
- RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
- RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
- RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
- RES 1: 147.73 High Oct 25
- PRICE: 147.25 @ 15:48 BST Oct 26
- SUP 1: 145.64 / 143.80 High Sep 12 / Low Oct 24 and key support
- SUP 2: 141.99 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 139.44/137.40 Low Sep 29 / 26 and key support
The EURJPY uptrend remains intact and the latest sharp pullback appears to be a correction. The cross has found strong support below 144.18, the 20-day EMA and key support has been defined at 143.80, Monday’s low. A continuation higher would open last Friday’s high of 148.40. This is the bull trigger and a break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Moving average studies continue to highlight a bullish backdrop.
AUDUSD TECHS: Building on Recent Strength
- RES 4: 0.6656 High Sep 23
- RES 3: 0.6563 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6547 High Oct 4 and key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6497 High Oct 26
- PRICE: 0.6491 @ 15:53 BST Oct 26
- SUP 1: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.6035 1.50 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
AUDUSD now trades a point above the 20-day EMA, cementing the break above resistance on Tuesday to confirm a bullish shift to the technical backdrop. This opens gains toward key resistance at the Oct 4 highs at 0.6547. Despite the recent gains, however, moving average studies continue to highlight a downtrend. This keeps support at 0.6133 in view, a Fibonacci projection.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Better first half upside call buying evaporated in the second half as the post-BOC tied rally in underlying FI futures leveled out. Salient trade:
- SOFR Options:
- Block, 3,000 SFRH3 97.12/97.50 call spds, 0.5
- 4,000 SFRZ2 95.62/95.75 3x2 call spds
- Block/screen, 30,000 Green Nov 96.37/96.56/96.75 call flys, 2.5
- 3,000 SFRZ 95.68/95.87/96.06 call flys
- Treasury Options:
- 15,000 FVZ2 105.5/106.75 put spds, 34
- 10,000 TYZ 111.5 calls, 56 ref 111-03
- Blocks, +15,000 TYZ2 112.75/114 call spds, 17-18 ref 110-29.5 to -30
- -5,000 TYZ2 110.75 straddles, 222
- +5,000 TYZ 111.25 calls, 61 ref 110-25.5
- Blocks, 15,000 TYZ2 112.5 calls, 32-33 ref 110-24.5
- Block/screen total +20,000 TYZ2 112.5 calls, 31 ref 110-26
- 3,500 FVZ2 105.5/106.75 put spds
- 7,000 TYZ 108/109 put spds, 12
- 2,500 TYZ2 108/108.25/109.5 broken put flys
- Block, 5,000 TYZ2 112.25/113 call spds, 15, more on screen
