EURGBP TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 3: 0.8769 61.8% retracement of the Nov 14 - Feb 4 bear leg 
• RES 2: 0.8746 High Jan 21 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8729 100-dma
• PRICE: 0.8701 @ 16:40 GMT Feb 11
• SUP 1: 0.8682/8613 20-day EMA / Low Feb 04 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25 
• SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle

Last Thursday’s strong bounce in EURGBP, and this week’s gains, still appear corrective. However, the cross is approaching key short-term resistance at 0.8746, the Jan 21 high, where a break would signal a potential trend reversal. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.8613, the Feb 4 low and bear trigger.       

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 02/12 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (231k, 224k), Continuing Claims (1.844M, 1.850M)
• 02/12 1000 Existing Home Sales (4.35M, 4.16M), MoM (5.1%, -4.3%)
• 02/12 1130 US Tsy $105B 4W, $95B 8W bill auctions
• 02/12 1300 US Tsy $25B 30Y Bond auction (91281UR7)
• 02/12 1900 Dallas Fed Logan moderated discussion w/ Fed Gov Miran
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

A new Politico survey has found that, “Slightly more Americans think Democrats, not Republicans, are the party most committed to reducing energy prices.” The outlet describes the results as, “yet another sign of potential trouble for President Donald Trump and the GOP on the issue of affordability.”

• Politico notes, “While far short of a majority, the edge for Democrats on the question is striking given the decades that surges in fuel costs have tormented nearly every Democratic president since Jimmy Carter, giving Republicans a message to hammer at election time. As recently as late 2024, polls showed most voters trusting Trump over Kamala Harris to shepherd the economy.”
• The report adds, “The results revealed a schism between Trump hardliners — self-identified “MAGA Trump” — and those who support the president but don’t consider themselves part of the Make America Great Again base. Sixty-nine percent of “MAGA Trump” voters said Republicans cared more than Democrats about reducing energy costs, compared with 34 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters.”

Figure 1: “Percentage of respondents, split by their intended midterm party vote, and which party they think wants to protect households from rising energy costs”

Source: Politico