Key Inter-Meeting Fed Speak – September 2025

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Ahead of next week's Fed decision, we've published our summary of FOMC participant communications since the July FOMC meeting, including MNI's Hawk-Dove Matrix and a recap of the latest Beige Book and July meeting minutes.

• Data since the July meeting will have convinced a majority of the 19-member FOMC to support restarting rate cuts in September. But while the Committee as a whole has shifted in a dovish direction over the summer, there is still something of a split headed into the meeting: we see 9 clearly in favor of a September cut (7 of whom are voters), 2 potentially opposed (1 is a voter), and 8 that sound unconvinced but may be persuaded by the time the meeting concludes (4 are voters).
• Indeed we think that most of the undecideds will have been convinced of the appropriateness of easing given recent data, particularly the August payrolls data and revisions after which we had only limited updates of FOMC participants’ views before the pre-meeting blackout period began.