STIR: Just 3bp Of Cuts Priced For Jan FOMC, More Pre-NFP Labor Data Today
- Fed Funds implied rates hold most of yesterday’s modest hawkish shift on a stronger than expected ISM services report that was only partly offset by a mixed JOLTS release.
- Cumulative cuts from 3.64% effective: 3bp Jan, 12bp Mar, 16.5bp Apr, 31.5bp Jun, 48.5bp Sep and 58.5bp Dec.
- SOFR futures have pared earlier gains and are now up to 1.5 ticks lower in most 2027 contracts for minor outperformance of Euribor.
- The SOFR terminal implied yield of 3.12% (Z6, +1bp) keeps to recent reasonably tight ranges.
- The NFP report looms large tomorrow but we see further labor updates today with weekly jobless claims, the final Chicago Fed u/e rate nowcast for December and Revelio data.
- Scheduled Fedspeak is limited to two Gov. Miran (voter) appearances, on Bloomberg at 0800ET before speaking at an economic forum in Athens at 1000ET (text tbd). He has spoken recently on the need for substantial rate cuts this year, having told MNI on Jan 5 that he penciled in an implied 150bp of rate cuts in the Dec SEP.
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US DATA: NFIB Finds Jump In Breadth Of Price Increases To November
The net share of small business reporting price changes over the three months to November saw its sharpest monthly increase in the NFIB survey’s history, although it didn’t translate into higher near-term inflation expectations. Whilst they didn't increase further, these forward-looking price plans still point to inflation remaining comfortably above target.
- The NFIB small business survey for November saw its optimism index inch up to 99.0 (Bloomberg consensus 98.3) from 98.2 in October.
- “Although optimism increased, small business owners are still frustrated by the lack of qualified workers. Despite this, more firms still plan to create new jobs in the near future.”
- As usual, our focus here is on the non-labor side of the survey with its jobs report already published, with particular attention on pricing plans which this month were much more mixed.
- The net share of firms reporting actual price changes compared to three months ago increased from 21% (joint lowest since Aug 2024) to 34% (highest since Mar 2023). Its previous recent high was 32% in February whilst it averaged ~12% in immediate years ahead of the pandemic.
- However, this didn’t have any impact on near-term expectations with the same net 30% expecting to change prices over the next three months. It saw a recent high of 32% in June (down from the 50s in late 2021/early 2022 for comparison) but remains above the ~22% pre-pandemic average.
- Profit trends: “The frequency of reports of positive profit trends rose 2 points from October to a net -23% (seasonally adjusted). Among owners reporting lower profits, 27% blamed weaker sales, 16% cited the rise in the cost of materials, and 12% cited labor costs. Nine percent reported usual seasonal change, and 7% cited price change for their product(s) or service(s). Among owners reporting higher profits, 51% cited sales volume, 18% cited usual seasonal change, and 12% cited higher selling prices.”
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Support Breached
- RES 4: 113-29+ High Oct 17 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 113-23 High Oct 23
- RES 2: 113-07/22+ High Dec 3 / High Nov 25
- RES 1: 112-28 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 112-10+ @ 11:19 GMT Dec 9
- SUP 1: 112-02+ Low Dec 08 & Sep 25
- SUP 2: 112-00+ 50% of the July - October Upleg
- SUP 3: 112-00 1.000 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 111-19 1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
A bearish theme in Treasuries remains intact and Monday’s move down reinforces current bearish conditions. Price has traded through 112-07, the Nov 5 high and a bear trigger. The breach strengthens a bear theme and signal scope for a move towards 112-00 next, the 1.00 projection of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing. Clearance of this level would open 111-19, the 1.236 projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 112-28, the 20-day EMA.
