MEXICO: June CPI Comes in Barely Ahead of Expectations
Jul-07 12:07
- Mexico CPI (Jun) M/M 0.10% vs. Exp. 0.09% (Prev. -0.22%), Y/Y 5.06% vs. Exp. 5.04% (Prev. 5.84%)
- Core CPI (Jun) M/M 0.30% vs. Exp. 0.27% (Prev. 0.32%), Y/Y 6.89% vs. Exp. 6.86% (Prev. 7.39%)
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GILT PAOF RESULTS: GBP76.162mln of the 3.50% Oct-25 gilt sold
Jun-07 12:03
- A total of GBP1.0bln had been available.
- This leaves GBP17.02bln of the gilt in issue.
USD: Greenback Pullback Extends, Putting GBP/USD at New Weekly Highs
Jun-07 11:54
- USD continuing to edge lower in recent trade, helping EUR/USD and GBP/USD to new daily highs - the latter of which trades to a new weekly high and clears the 50-dma of 1.2461.
- Ebb and flow of risk sentiment remains the driver, with the push higher in the e-mini S&P off the overnight lows coinciding with USD weakness.
- EM currencies seeing some relief on the move, with USD/ZAR's downtrend off the June high accelerating to press the pair through 19.00 on the way lower - marks a near 5% bounce for the ZAR.
- Activity so far is very modestly below average for this time of day, with GBP futures activity sitting around 10% below what you'd expect to see for this time of day.
UK: Latest MRP Poll Has Labour On Course For Substantial Majority In Next Election
Jun-07 11:46
The latest Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) analysis carried out by Focaldata for the anti-Brexit/internationalist civil society group Best for Britain shows the main opposition centre-left Labour Party on course to win a sizable 140-seat majority in the next general election (seen by observers as most likely in autumn 2024).
- The MRP analysis, carried out on 10,140 respondents, shows a number of various scenarios dependent on which parties run in the election. The base-case scenario, with the right-wing populist Reform Party running, has Labour winning 470 seats to PM Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservatives on 129 seats. This MRP is the first carried out based on the new constituency boundaries coming in at the next election.
- The MRP shows that if Reform stood aside the split would shift to a 401-201 advantage for Labour, still a significant majority for Sir Keir Starmer's party. Even in the 'worst-case' scenario for Labour in which Reform stand aside and undecided voters swing heavily behind Sunak's party, it would still lead the Conservatives by 316 seats to 286 meaning a hung parliament.
- In policy terms polls such as these can prove influential. With the Conservatives trailing in polls, it could see the gov't look to cut the tax burden on UK households or boost public spending 2024 in an effort to bolster support ahead of the election, in turn impacting on the UK fiscal outlook.
