FOREX: JPY Extends Post-Election Surge Despite Payrolls Volatility
Feb-11 18:10
- Higher-than-expected headline figures within the January US employment report sparked some recovery strength on Wednesday. However, intricacies within the report and the overarching bearish dollar narrative quickly sapped the initial greenback enthusiasm. The net impact is a slightly lower dollar index on the session, although this has been dragged by particularly strong performance for both the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar.
- The Japanese yen extended its post-election rebound in APAC trade, prompting USDJPY to fall to a 152.80 low. The pair recovered ahead of the US data, and had an aggressive spike to 154.65 following the release, however, the rally was extremely short-lived with a vicious reversal taking the pair back below 153 in rapid fashion.
- After a few hours of steadier trade between 153.20-80, spot has now edged back below 153.00 as has made fresh session lows below 152.80 as we approach the APAC crossover, further narrowing the gap to 152.10 support, the Jan 27 low.
- AUD outperformance has been linked to a stable session for equities and the positive performance for precious metals. Furthermore, a hawkish leaning RBA Hauser has underpinned the bullish AUD narrative, prompting AUDUSD to close in on the 2023 highs at 0.7158. Aussie strength has been very notable in the crosses, with the likes of EURAUD and GBPAUD extending their 2026 selloffs to around 5.5%, and AUDCHF showing nascent signs of a technical breakout, rising 1.15% today.
- In similar vein, the more stable session for the Euro and sterling have prompted solid corrections for EURJPY and GBPJPY, with the latter extending significantly below its 50-day EMA and the January lows to reach a session low of 208.45.
- UK GDP and US jobless claims highlight a lighter calendar on Thursday, before he focus turns to Friday’s release of US CPI.
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 10Y Auction Re-Open: Stops Through
Jan-12 18:07
- Treasury futures are still mildly mixed - but are trying to move higher (TYH6 steady to +.5 at 112-07.5, yld 4.1713%) after the $39B 10Y note auction re-open (91282CPJ4) stops through: drawing 4.173% high yield vs. 4.179% WI; 2.55x bid-to-cover steady vs. prior.
- Peripheral stats: indirect take-up to 69.65% vs. 70.24% prior; direct bidder take-up 24.51% from 20.96% prior; primary dealer take-up retreats to 5.85% vs. 8.81% prior.
- The next 10Y auction is tentatively scheduled for February 12.
FED: US TSY 9Y-10M NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.173%; ALLOTMENT 93.91%
Jan-12 18:02
- US TSY 9Y-10M NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.173%; ALLOTMENT 93.91%
- US TSY 9Y-10M NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 5.85% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 9Y-10M NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 24.51% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 9Y-10M NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 69.65% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 9Y-10M AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.55
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.570%(ALLOT 12.52%)
Jan-12 18:02
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 3.570%(ALLOT 12.52%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 41.78% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 8.88% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 49.34% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.79
