US DATA: Jobless Claims Settling In To Cool But Not Weak Range
Dec-19 15:19
Initial jobless claims came in on the low side in the week to Dec 14, at 220k, dropping more than the 12k expected (to 230k from 242k prior unrevised). Continuing claims also came in lower than expected for the Dec 7 week, at 1,874k (1,892k expected) from 1,879k (rev down 7k).
- That kept the 4-week average of initial claims at 226k, up just slightly from 224k in the prior week and 8k up from the mid-November low, but down from the high 230ks in October (which appeared hurricane-related).
- And continuing claims have likewise steadied out in the 1,870-1,900k range since mid- October.
- All of that is suggestive of a labor market that remains on the cool side, but without any signs of significant deterioration - conditions Fed Chair Powell alluded to in the December press conference, that afforded the FOMC more patience to see further progress on disinflation before easing to protect the labor market.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US DATA: Housing Starts See Q4 GDPNow Tick Up To Highest Since Nonfarm Payrolls
Nov-19 15:17
The October New Residential Construction report has counterintuitively pushed the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for residential investment in Q4 into positive territory.
- Real residential investment is now seen rising by 0.1% Q/Q annualized, vs -1.2% prior to the data (which showed starts falling more than expected, by -3.1%, at 1416k vs 1435k survey). Looking at the internal details, the Atlanta Fed model appears to expect a decreased drag from real private new housing construction over the quarter, with positive contribution from other factors including construction of manufactured homes and dormitories.
- That would mean a flat contribution to real GDP in Q4, after consecutive drags in Q2 (-0.1pp) and Q3 (-0.2pp).
- It also means the highest estimate for Q4 growth (2.6%) since the initial nowcast (2.7%) was dragged down (to 2.3%) by the below-expected October nonfarm payrolls data on Nov 1.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Nov20 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Nov-19 15:14
- EUR/USD: $1.0500-10(E1.1bln), $1.0530-50(E1.5bln), $1.0585(E685mln), $1.0620-25(E1.4bln)
- USD/JPY: Y154.80-00($1.6bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4000($616mln)
US DATA: Signs Of Storm Disruption In October State Payrolls Data
Nov-19 15:05
Clear signs of storm disruption in the state payrolls figures. As noted beforehand, beware adding the states up but multiple negative readings for those impacted by Helene & Milton, especially Florida at -38k.
