US DATA: Jobless Claims Mostly Still Resilient
May-08 12:49
The weekly jobless claims data continue to show relatively low levels of layoffs whilst re-hiring activity is still on slowly moderating trend. Continuing claims pulled back from a break of recently well-defined ranges but the NSA values are still on the high side compared to recent years.
- Initial jobless claims: 228k (sa, cons 230k) in the week to May 3 after an unrevised 241k, supporting what had looked like a prior increase on the later than usual timing of Easter this year.
- The four-week average continues to slowly drift higher and at 227k is now at its highest since mid-March although it’s still low historically. We often compare with the 218k averaged in 2019 for a previous period of historical labor tightness (and that’s not allowing for sizeable population growth since then).
- The four-week average bottomed out at 213k in the weeks just prior to President Trump’s administration, but the climb has been slow, helped by DOGE-driven deferred resignations not showing until September.
- Continuing claims: 1879k (sa, cons 1895k) in the week to Apr 26 after a downward revised 1908k (initial 1916k), back into more typical ranges after hitting a 3+ year high.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Crunch Week For Budget Reconcilliation
Apr-08 12:34
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- At 13:00 ET 18:00 BST, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will deliver her first press conference since Trump’s 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement. President Donald Trump will sign an Executive Order to boost the US coal industry before delivering remarks at the NRCC Dinner at 18:45 ET 23:45 BST.
- The pragmatic wing of the Trump administration - led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent - appears to have gained the upper hand over the trade hawks - led by advisor Peter Navarro and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The White House appeared to delete a social media post backing a Navarro op-ed claiming tariffs are "not a negotiation." Shortly after, Bessent confirmed he will lead trade negotiations with Japan.
- Bessent said yesterday that tariffs are going to ‘re-lever’ the private sector, pay for Trump’s tax agenda, and bolster national security.
- Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on China that could hike duties on Chinese imports to 104% (20% Fentanyl, 34% reciprocal, 50% counter-retaliatory).
- USTR Jamieson Greer's testimony to the Senate on Trump's trade agenda will be the most watched event on Capitol Hill today.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is facing a rebellion from deficit hawks and his Budget Committee chair over the Senate's reconciliation budget blueprint.
- The US will hold indirect talks with Iran on its nuclear programme on Saturday.
- Poll of the Day: Consumer sentiment registered an 8-point swing from April 5.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
EQUITIES: EU Bank put spread
Apr-08 12:32
SX7E (17th Apr) 144/135ps, bought 0.55 in 20k.
JPY: FX Exchange traded Option
Apr-08 12:26
FX Exchange traded Option, looking for Yen Weakness.
- JPYUSD (8th Aug) 73c, sold at 0.79 in 1.5k.
