CANADA: Job Vacancies To Unemployed Bounce Back To Cycle Highs
Nov-24 16:34
- The ratio of Canadian job vacancies to unemployed bounced back to joint highs of 1:1 in September according to today’s SEPH report [first chart].
- It reverses a decline since those highs from May/June, suggesting a slower cooling in labour demand than first thought.
- It helps support the more recent bounce in employment in October along with continued skilled and non-skilled job shortages weighing on business activity [second chart].
- Methodological differences and limited history make it hard to compare with the JOLTS equivalent in the US, although the relative increase since late 2020 suggests a frothier vacancies market in the US which still sits closer to 2:1, just one reason for a higher terminal rate.
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Oct-25 16:31
- EUR/USD: Oct27 $0.9800(E1.6bln), $0.9850(E1.9bln), $1.0000(E1bln); Oct28 $1.0000(E1.3bln); Oct31 $1.0000(E1.9bln)
- USD/CNY: Oct27 Cny7.2500($1.7bln); Oct28 Cny7.00($4.2bln)
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview $42B 2Y Note Auction
Oct-25 16:27
Tsy futures holding broadly higher by midday, yield curves flatter ahead today's $42B 2Y note auction (91282CFQ9) at the top of the hour. WI is currently running around 4.437%, 17.7bp cheap to last month's tail.
- September auction recap: Tsy futures remained broadly weaker/near lows after $43B 2Y note auction (91282CFN6) tailed: 4.290% high yield vs. 4.275% WI; 2.51x bid-to-cover vs. 2.49x prior.
- Indirect take-up receded to 52.95% vs. 59.73% prior month, primary dealer take-up climbed to 24.84% vs. 17.31%, direct take-up 22.20% vs. 22.95%.
- Timing: The 2Y note results will available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.
STIR: BLOCK, Dec SOFR Put Condor
Oct-25 16:24
- 4,500 SFRZ2 95.37/95.50/95.56/95.68 put condors, 4.5 at 1220:20 ref 95.40
