US DATA: Job Openings Surprisingly Slide In A Particularly Mixed JOLTS Report

The November JOLTS report marked the opposite of last month’s two-month update, with this time a large miss for job openings but higher quits and lower layoffs. That said, hires also offered a more pessimistic take although it was at least broadly similar to last month’s previously estimated decline before latest revisions. 

• Job openings ended November much lower than expected at 7146k (cons 7648k) after a downward revised 7449k in Oct (initial 7670k) and 7658k in Sep.
• It’s the lowest level of openings since Sep 2024 and before that Dec 2020.
• The decline in the latest two months goes firmly against stabilization and a slight increase in Indeed job openings in daily data up until Dec 12.
• The ratio of JOLTS openings to unemployed fell to 0.91 in November from 0.97 in Oct (calculated with interpolated unemployment) and 1.01 in Sept.
• Having averaged 1.02 through Feb-Oct, it’s now dropped to a fresh low since early 2021. Pre-pandemic, it last saw 0.9 readings in 2017.
• Powell back in September noted the ratio remained near 1 as a part of a number of other labor market indicators that remain broadly stable, but we assume greater sensitivity if this starts falling materially lower. For context, it averaged 1.2 in 2019 and 1.0 in 2017-18.