BRAZIL: January IPCA Inflation & December Retail Sales Data Scheduled
Feb-09 11:51
- IPCA inflation is expected to print at +0.56% M/m in January closely aligned to the 0.55% increase in the mid-month reading. Analysts note that there may be minor, seasonal declines in some prices such as apparel. Elsewhere, food inflation likely ticked down, while transportation costs probably accelerated.
- Looking forward, base effects will likely drive a sharper decline in year-over-year inflation between March and June, and a rise from July onward. Given the BCB’s messaging around the deterioration of medium and longer-term inflation expectations, the month-on-month readings of underlying inflation will be in focus for assessing the rate outlook going forward.
- Retail sales data for December will also be published. Core sales should be weak amid tighter financial conditions and relatively low consumer confidence.
- Data is due at 1200GMT/0900 Local/0700ET:
- Jan. IBGE Inflation IPCA M/m, est. 0.56%, prior 0.62%
- Jan. IBGE Inflation IPCA Y/y, est. 5.81%, prior 5.79%
- Dec. Retail Sales M/m, est. -0.8%, prior -0.6%
- Dec. Retail Sales Y/y, est. 2.7%, prior 1.5%
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PIPELINE: Supra-Sovereigns US$ Issuance
Jan-10 11:51
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/10 $1B CDC (Caisse des Depots) 3Y SOFR+46a
- 01/10 $Benchmark Israel 10Y +130a
- 01/10 $Benchmark AIIB 5Y SOFR+65a (books>$1.7B)
- 01/10 $Benchmark KFW 5Y SOFR+40 (books>$10.5B)
- 01/10 $Benchmark Macquarie Bank 10Y +350a
- 01/10 $Benchmark BPCE 5Y +165a, 4NC3 +230a
- 01/10 $Benchmark Export Bank of India 10Y +220a
- 01/10 $Benchmark Mongolia 5Y 9.625%a
- 01/10 $Benchmark Saudi Arabia 5Y +140a, 10.5Y +170a, 30Y +210a
PIPELINE: High-Grade Debt Issuance Roundup
Jan-10 11:49
- $24.15B Priced Monday, over $118B for month so far
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/09 $4.7B *Regal Rexnord $1.1B 3Y +215, $1.25B 5Y +240, $1.1B 7Y +270, $1.25B 10Y +290
- 01/09 $3.75B *RBC $1B 3Y +95, $300M 3Y SOFR+108, $750M 5Y +125, $1.7B 10Y +150
- 01/09 $3B *Toyota Motor Credit $1.2B 2Y +63, $300M 2Y SOFR+56, $1B 5Y +98, $500M 10Y +118
- 01/09 $3B *Philippines $500M 5.5Y +105, $1.25B 10.5Y +145, $1.25B 25Y 5.5%
- 01/09 $2B *POSCO Holdings $700M 3Y +190, $1B 5Y +220, $300M 10Y +250
- 01/09 $2B *Dell International $1B 5Y +160, $1B 10Y +225
- 01/09 $1.75B *BNP Paribas 6NC5 +145
- 01/09 $1.1B *Realty Income $500M 3NC1 +125, $600M 7Y +145
- 01/09 $1.1B *WEC Energy $650M 3Y +85, $450M 5Y +112.5
- 01/09 $1B *Crown Castle 5Y +137.5
- 01/09 $750M *National Bank of Canada 2Y +110
US TSYS: Paring Gains Pre-Powell, 3Y Supply Later
Jan-10 11:48
- Cash Tsys have pared some of yesterday’s further gains in relatively light trade with Chair Powell eyed at 0900ET, although increased data dependency potentially sees this somewhat in CPI’s shadow on Thursday.
- 2YY +2.9bps at 4.237%, 5YY +2.1bps at 3.694%, 10YY +2.6bps at 3.558% and 30YY +1.2bps at 3.672%, mostly remaining in the lower end of yesterday’s ranges and with 2YY down more than 25bps from just before payrolls on Friday.
- TYH3 trades 9 ticks lower at 114-11 as it pulls back from yesterday’s high of 114-23+ on subdued volumes. The latter sets initial resistance where a renewed push higher as part of the bullish extension could open 115-08+ (2.0% 10-dma envelope). To the downside sits 113-11 (50-day EMA).
- Fedspeak: Powell speaks at a Riksbank panel on central bank independence (0900ET).
- Data: NFIB small business sentiment edged back close to cycle lows along with an encouraging 10pt decline in pricing plans almost back to pre-pandemic averages. Ahead, wholesale trade sales for Nov and final Nov for inventories (1000ET).
- Bond issuance: US Tsy $40B 3Y Note auction (1300ET)
