SPAIN DATA: Jan PMI: Details Still Solid Despite Weaker-than-expected Print
Although weaker than expected, the details of the Spanish services PMI aren’t too worrying – employment growth in particular remains “highly positive”. The services and composite PMIs have been in expansionary territory for over two years now.
- SPAIN JAN SERVICES PMI 53.5 (56.8 EXP, 57.1 DEC)
- SPAIN JAN COMPOSITE PMI 52.9 (55.4 EXP, 55.6 DEC)
Key notes from the release:
- “The downshift in sector expansion was closely correlated with an easing of new business growth in January to its slowest since last June. Whilst market demand was reported to have remained positive, panellists detected a weakening of demand growth, especially when compared to levels seen in the second half of 2025”
- “Employment growth nonetheless remained highly positive, edging up since December to its greatest level since last March”
- “Confidence in the outlook indeed remained positive, with sentiment improving slightly in January to reach its highest level for ten months. Companies are widely expecting to see demand pick up in the near-term”
- “In response to another round of steeply rising input costs, panellists increased their own output charges. Inflation was solid, edging up to a three-month high though was below levels typically seen in 2025.”
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 113-07 High Dec 3
- RES 3: 113-00+ 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Dec 10 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-25+ high Dec 30 / 31
- RES 1: 112-20 50 -day EMA
- PRICE: 112-09+ @ 08:02 GMT Jan 5
- SUP 1: 112-01+/111-29 Low Dec 23 / 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 111-19 1.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 111-11 1.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 111-00 Round number support
Treasuries continue to trade above key support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low and a bear trigger. The trend theme remains bearish and a break of 111-29 would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. This would open 111-19 initially, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 112-31, the Dec 18 high, where a break would undermine a bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery instead.
STIR: The Bar To 2026 ECB Rate Moves Is High; Two Way Risks To Monitor
The ECB-dated OIS implied curve suggests the bar to deposit rate moves in either direction in 2026 is high. There are two-way risks for the Governing Council to consider in the coming months, but the majority of policymakers believe rates are in a "good place" for now.
- On the growth side, implementation of the German fiscal expansion remains a focus. Meanwhile, many countries will hope that positive real wage growth and reduced trade policy uncertainty can provide a boost to household consumption. However, ongoing geopolitical risks (centred in Russia/Ukraine) may continue to keep savings rates elevated.
- The ECB projects core inflation to be relatively sticky in Q1, before easing towards 2% by year-end. Downside risks to core inflation include a stronger Euro, continued Chinese import penetration and disinflationary start-of-year services price resets. However, firm wage growth could constrain additional services disinflation.
- This week’s regional calendar is headlined by the December flash inflation round. Country-level data from France and Germany is due tomorrow, with the Eurozone-wide reading released on Wednesday. Core HICP inflation is expected unchanged at 2.4% Y/Y. MNI’s preview is here
- Intraday, Euribor futures are little changed through the blues. Rates markets have seen a contained reaction to the US' special operation in Venezuela over the weekend.
EGB SYNDICATION: Slovenia 10-year: Guidance
- EUR Benchmark 10Y Fixed (March 12, 2036) MS+45 Area
- Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA, long first
- Size: MNI expects E1.5bln
- Issuer: Slovenia Government Bond (SLOREP)
- Format: Reg S CAT1, dematerialized, registered
- Settlement: Jan. 12, 2026 (t+5)
- ISIN: SI0002105227
- Bookrunners: Barclays (B&D), DZ Bank, HSBC, JPM, OTPBSI, RBI
- Timing: May price today.
Details as per Bloomberg, with MNI colour.
