CANADA DATA: Ivey Shows PMIs Converging On Flat Growth In October
The Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index showed a sharp divergence with other Canadian PMIs in October with a deterioration to 52.4 from 59.8 prior.
- The 50+ reading means more businesses surveyed said business improved vs deteriorated. But the underlying indices were extremely mixed.
- The Employment sub-gauge however rose to the highest since February (51.8 from 50.2), while there were drops in inventories (51.7 after 56.4) and supplier deliveries (45.4 after 46.4). Having pulled back for 3 consecutive months, prices remained steady at an elevated 64.3 (63.2 prior).
- The Ivey pullback contrasts with the S&P Global PMI surveys for October which showed a Composite reading above 50.0 also for the first time since November 2024 (prior was 46.3). That's largely consistent with a positive GDP reading though at best at a very flat rate.
- As usual we wouldn't read much into the month-to-month findings for an index as volatile as the Ivey PMI but stepping back at the 3-month average, it's consistent with economic activity that bottomed out in summer but whose recovery began to stall entering the last 4 months of the year.
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: Another Upside Call Condor Goes Through
ERM6 98.50/98.625/98.750/98.875 call condor, bought for 0.5 in 18k.
FINLAND: Stubb & Orpo To Meet w/Trump 9 Oct To Press Ukraine Support
President Alexander Stubb has said that he intends to deliver messages from Ukraine to US President Donald Trump on Thursday, 9 October. Stubb has recently visited Kyiv for walks with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and he will be in Washington, D.C., for talks at the White House alongside Prime Minister Petteri Orpo. The Finnish gov't says the meeting "will focus on bilateral relations between Finland and the United States, commercial and economic cooperation and Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine."
- Stubb has proved one of the European leaders most able to communicate effectively with President Trump during the latter's second term in office. Speaking in Kyiv, Stubb talked up one of Trump's recent European annoyances, namely the continued purchase of Russian hydrocarbons: "As far as getting our own house in order, I think President Trump, when he says that Europe needs to stop buying Russian oil and gas, is right.[...] the finger points in two places [referring to Hungary and Slovakia],"
- Helsingin Sanomat reports that the issue of US purchase of Finnish-made icebreaker vessels is also set to be on the agenda, although the gov't has not confirmed this. Orpo: "We have a lot to give. We have the ability to build icebreakers. We have that expertise. We are ready to discuss these issues.” Such an order would not only provide a notable boost to the shipyards in Helsinki and Rauma, but also bolster security ties between the US and Finland, seen as increasingly important now the country is in NATO and holds a border with Russia hundreds of miles long.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $2.5B BoE, $1.75B CPPIB Debt Priced
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 10/07 $2.5B *Bank of England 5Y +8a
- 10/07 $1.75B *CPPIB 3Y SOFR+39
- 10/07 $Benchmark Angola +5Y 9.75%a, 10Y 10.5%a
- 10/07 $Benchmark Türkiye Garanti Bankası 10.5NC5.5
- 10/07 $Benchmark TD Synnex +3Y +100a, 10Y +145a
- 10/07 $Benchmark Goldman Sachs investor calls
- 10/07 $Benchmark JDC Dev Bank Kazakhstan +5Y, KZT 3Y investor calls
- Expected Wednesday
- 10/08 $Benchmark Federal Home Loan 2Y +4a
- 10/08 $1B Kommunalbanken Norway WNG 3Y SOFR+37
