PERU: Itaú Expect BCRP On Hold For Remainder Of 2023
- Consumer prices increased 0.32% in May, above Itaú’s forecast of 0.16%, but broadly in line with the market consensus of 0.30%. The main upward pressures to headline CPI came from restaurant & hotels (contribution of 11-bp) and food prices (contribution of 25-bp), with the latter driven by fish prices due to a weather anomaly.
- On an annual basis, headline inflation stood at 7.89% in May (from 7.97% in April), while core inflation (excluding energy and food items) registered a 5.11% increase (from 5.66%).
- Looking ahead, they expect inflation at 4.0% at the end of this year. Lower commodity prices and below potential activity are likely to help inflation to slow down in 2023.
- In this context, Itaú expect the BCRP policy rate to remain unchanged throughout the year at 7.75%.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Still Points North
- RES 4: 1.2720 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.2667 High May 27 2022
- RES 2: 1.2599 High Jun 7 2022
- RES 1: 1.2584 High Apr 28 and May 1
- PRICE: 1.2530 @ 16:03 BST May 3
- SUP 1: 1.2438 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2353/45 Low Apr 17 / 10
- SUP 3: 1.2329 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2275 Low Apr 3
The trend outlook in GBPUSD is unchanged and remains bullish. Last Friday’s gains reinforced this theme - the pair traded higher to breach resistance at 1.2546, the Apr 14 high and bull trigger. This also confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has opened 1.2599, the Jun 7 2022 high. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.2438. A clear break of it is required to suggest scope for a deeper correction.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
NY Fed reverse repo usage slips back to $2,258.222B w/ 102 counterparties, compares to prior $2,267.130B. Compares to high usage for 2023: $2,375.171B on Friday March 31, 2023; all-time record high of $2,553.716B reached December 30, 2022.
NY Federal Reserve/MNI
PIPELINE: Issuers Sidelined Ahead FOMC
No new US$ debt issuance going into Wednesday's FOMC announcement
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- $5B Priced Tuesday, $26.55B running total for the week
- 05/02 $4B *Barclays $2B 4NC3 +215, $2B 11NC10 +280
- 05/02 $1B *Glencore $500M 5Y +195, $500M 10Y +230
