POWER: Italian Hydro Stocks Rebound Slightly

- Italian hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 51 – increased by 0.01TWh to 3.02TWh to end their nine-week downward trend, with stocks flipping above the five-year average. The increase was due to lower demand on the week, with higher wind generation reducing the call for hydro output.

• Stocks stood 0.02TWh above the five-year average last week after being at a 0.03TWh deficit the week prior
• Reserves also narrowed their deficit to the same week in 2023 to 0.32TWh from 0.42TWh in week 50.
• Power demand in Italy last week declined to 32.87GW from 34.50GW the week before.
• Gas-fired power generation in Italy last week decreased sharply by 4.89GW to 13.28GW.
• Italian hydropower output from pumped storage fell by 233MW last week to 149MW. Generation from reservoirs also declined, moving down by 187MW to 301MW, with run-of-river generation at 2.23GW from 2.76GW in week 50.
• Wind output in Italy rose by 1.28GW to 3.69GW last week – the highest since the week of 18-24 November.  Solar PV output rose by 234MW to 1.60GW.
• There was no precipitation in Torino near Italy’s hydro-intensive region last week, limiting inflows into reserves.
• Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF weather forecasts for Torino suggested precipitation to just 0.14mm over 23 December- 1 January.
• Italy’s hydro balance is forecast to end this week at -2.90TWh on 29 December.  The balance is further expected to near to end at -3.13TWh on 11 January.

• Wind generation in Italy for the remainder of this week is forecast between 0.459GW and 2.08GW during base load, with output early next week at just 6-2% load factors over 30 December-1 January, according to SpotRenewables.