ISM Services Surges On Rebounding Orders
Feb-03 15:16By: Chris Harrison
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- ISM services was far stronger than expected in January at 55.2 (cons 50.5), back at the 55.5 in Nov via December’s 49.2. The largest increase since Jun'20 followed the largest downward surprise since 2008.
- The sharp reversal higher puts paid to the idea that the service economy was following the existing downturn in manufacturing at a faster pace than was the case in the last few slowdowns – see left chart.
- New orders play a large part at 60.4 (+15.2) after last month’s -10.6pt plunge to 45.2 -- that’s the largest increase since Jun’20 rising off lockdown lows and otherwise not seen since at least 2000.
- It leaves orders at joint August highs and otherwise at highs since Jan’22. Details suggest this is lead domestically but new export orders also see a second strong monthly increase, rising from November’s 38.4 to now 59.0 for the highest since September.
- Prices paid offer perhaps the clearest signal of a still strong service economy, only very slowly easing from 68.1 to 67.8 vs 2H22 average of 70.7.
