IRAN: *IRAN'S FARS: SMALL DRONES SEEN IN PARTS OF COUNTRY

• RES 4: 0.8789 High Feb 27 and key S/T resistance
• RES 3: 0.8739 High Mar 3
• RES 2: 0.8700 50.0% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.8685 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8655 @ 16:30 GMT Mar 24
• SUP 1: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull phase 

Recent gains in EURGBP resulted in the cross trading through resistance around the 20-day EMA. Attention is on a more important resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8685. A clear break of this average would undermine the recent bear theme and signal scope for a stronger recovery. This would open 0.8739, the Mar 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is 0.8610, the Mar 16 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle.

New Gallup data shows that “the personal and professional environment of US workers was worse at the end of 2025 than at any point in the past three years across several important metrics.”

• The report notes, “For the first time since Gallup began tracking the life evaluation of the U.S. workforce, more workers report struggling in their lives (49%) than thriving (46%): a stark reversal from 2022 and 2023 when more than half of employees were classified as thriving.”
• “The downturn in U.S. workers’ thriving since 2022 has unfolded alongside worsening perceptions of the U.S. job market. In Q4 2025, 28% of U.S. employees said now is a “good time” to find a quality job, with 72% calling it a bad time. This marks a dramatic reversal from mid-2022, when nearly 70% of workers were optimistic. The 42-point decline since then represents the largest collapse in job market confidence Gallup has recorded in the past four years,” Gallup adds.

Figure 1: “Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a quality job?”

Source: Gallup

EGBs underperformed Gilts Tuesday.

• After an early dip in yields, US-Iran war developments weighed on the space once more after Monday's relief rally. This included reports of US troops being deployed to the Middle East, and that Saudi Arabia sought a prolonged conflict with Iran.
• EGBs were particularly weighed as ECB speakers continued to stress vigilance around second-round effects from the energy price shock, including Sleijpen.
• The March flash PMIs saw manufacturing beat expectations across countries but services miss, with the overall Eurozone composite falling to a 10-month low.
• The German curve bear flattened, with 2s10s seeing its lowest close since February 2025. Periphery/semi core spreads widened as equities retraced Monday's gains.
• While yields closed at/near session highs, futures indicated further weakness after the cash close, in part due to a weak US Treasury auction.
• Wednesday's scheduled highlights are German IFO, and in greater focus, UK February inflation data - MNI's preview is here. As this is a pre-conflict print, the potential for it to be hugely market moving is much diminished but an upside surprise would likely reinforce concerns that hikes are needed while a downside surprise is unlikely to alleviate fears of second round inflationary impacts from energy prices. 

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 7.7bps at 2.652%, 5-Yr is up 3.6bps at 2.747%, 10-Yr is up 1.4bps at 3.019%, and 30-Yr is down 1.4bps at 3.488%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 3.2bps at 4.449%, 5-Yr is up 0.5bps at 4.488%, 10-Yr is up 2bps at 4.94%, and 30-Yr is up 2.7bps at 5.554%.
• Italian BTP spread up 5.2bps at 92.4bps / French OAT up 2.2bps at 72.8bps