IRAN: Iran & Pakistan Discuss Ceasefire

Early upside in gilts extends as futures push through yesterday’s high.

• Gilt futures as high as 88.51 before backing off to ~88.30.
• Bears remain in technical control at this stage, with bulls still needing to force a move above the March 18 low (89.09). A correction would allow technically oversold conditions to unwind.
• Yields ~9bp lower across the curve. 2s nearly 35bp below Monday’s high, while 10s are ~25bp below their Monday high.
• Move comes with crude oil trading lower on U.S. efforts to de-escalate the war in Iran while the market waits for the official response of the Iranian regime to the U.S. request for a ceasefire.
• Reports have pointed to Iran setting a high bar for any ceasefire agreement, while the IRGC’s growing influence when it comes to the day-to-day operations within the country presents another layer of complication.
• Elsewhere, the U.S. continues to increase its military presence in the region, even though reports have suggested that the two countries could hold high level reports as soon as Tuesday.
• BoE-dated OIS pricing 61bp of tightening vs. 66bp ahead of the gilt open.
• February CPI data roughly met expectations, it shouldn’t impact monetary policy given escalation in the Middle East in the time since.
• The Citi-YouGov inflation expectations survey saw the short-term component surge to +5.4% from +3.3%, registering the highest level since ’23.
• BoE MPC member Greene will speak at 12:00 London.

• RES 4: $108.071 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 6 sell-off
• RES 3: $99.668 - 61.8% retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 6 sell-off
• RES 2: $90.015/97.804 - High Mar 10 / 2 
• RES 1: $80.184 - 50-day EMA       
• PRICE: $73.261 @ 08:08 GMT Mar 25
• SUP 1: $61.007 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: $60.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 3: $56.496 - Low Dec 4 ‘25
• SUP 4: $53.345 - Low Nov 28 ‘25 

A bear cycle in Silver remains intact. Monday’s initial move lower resulted in a breach of key short-term support at $64.098, the Feb 6 low and bear trigger. A clear break of this level would strengthen bearish conditions and confirm a resumption of a medium-term corrective cycle plus open the $60.00 handle. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $97.804, the Mar 2 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at  $80.184, the 50-day EMA. 

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