US DATA: IP Slightly Weaker Whilst Manufacturing Production More Clearly Disappoints

QUICK REPEAT:

Today, 10 yr Yield level will be a touch higher vs Yesterday:

• 4.7000% = 107.12+.
• 4.7268% = 107.08+ (72.6% retrace of Oct/Dec).

Bund is now testing the 2024 low of 131.23, but as noted 2.512% 2024 high in Yield equates to 130.98 today, the main area to watch.

• Industrial production was in line in March as it increased 0.39% M/M (cons 0.4), although it did follow an upward revised 0.44% (initial 0.1%) in Feb.
• Further, manufacturing production beat eat 0.48% M/M (cons 0.2) after an upward revised 1.19% (initial 0.8%) in Feb.
• The last two monthly increases have steadied some of the weakness in the measures, with overall IP growth at -1.8% ar on a 3M/3M basis and manufacturing production essentially flat at -0.1% ar.
• Capacity utilization on the other hand was a little lower than expected at 78.4% (cons 78.5%) after a downward revised 78.2% (initial 78.3%).

• RES 4: $533.25 - High Oct 20
• RES 3: $512.50 - High Dec 6
• RES 2: $502.00 - High Dec 26
• RES 1: $451.44/471.00 - 50-day EMA / High Jan 24 / 25
• PRICE: $442.00 @ 13:44 BST Apr 16
• SUP 1: $422.25 - Low Feb 26
• SUP 2: $400.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 3: $391.13 - 1.50 proj of the Jun 21 - Jul 13 - Jul 24 price swing
• SUP 4: $375.69 - 1.618 proj of the Jun 21 - Jul 13 - Jul 24 price swing

Corn futures are in consolidation mode. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at $451.44, has remained intact. The broader trend direction is down and gains are considered corrective. Fresh trend lows in February reinforce bearish conditions and a resumption of the downtrend would open $400.00. On the upside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would instead expose $471.00, the Jan 24 / 25 high.