SPAIN DATA: IP Sees Strong March Bounce, Energy Only Partially Rebounds

The 10-Year gilt/Bund spread trades through the March 17 close (178.80bp), narrowing as gilts continue to exhibit a higher beta to risk sentiment surrounding Iran.

• Expect geopolitical and cross-market matters to continue to dominate in the immediate term, with heightened sensitivity to headlines in the lead up the U.S.-Iran discussions, set to start on Friday.
• The 38.2% retracement of the January-March widening (178.27bp, based on closing levels) has also been breached, with the 50% retracement of the same move (173.09bp) protecting the March 10 closing level (171.72bp).

Fig. 1: UK/Germany 10-Year Yield Spread (bp)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P.

• RES 4: $107.341 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 29 - Mar 23 sell-off
• RES 3: $97.804 - High Mar 2
• RES 2: $90.015 - High Mar 10 
• RES 1: $77.574/644 - 50-day EMA / Intraday high       
• PRICE: $77.088 @ 08:37 BST Apr 8
• SUP 1: $61.007 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $60.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 3: $56.496 - Low Dec 4 ‘25
• SUP 4: $53.345 - Low Nov 28 ‘25 

A bear cycle in Silver remains intact and recent gains appear corrective. The breach of $64.098, the Feb 6 low and bear trigger, reinforces a bear theme. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the M/T downward cycle, plus open the $60.00 handle and below. Key resistance is at $97.804, the Mar 2 high. Initial firm resistance is $77.574, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a stronger retracement.

• ESTR vs ERZ6 was initially bought earlier, but sold back in 4k.
• The Spread has now traded in 11.1k total and Today's low print of 13.5 is its lowest since 19th Feb.
• The spread is 14/14.25.