POWER: Investment Funds Net Short Positioning On German Power at High
Feb-19 09:09
Investment Funds positioning in ICE German power futures increased their net short positioning, with short positioning hitting a fresh all-time high, according to the latest COT data as of 14 February.
- Investment Funds net short positioning rose to -16.01mn from -12.38mn in the week of 7 February. Net short positioning ended its three-week declining trend and surpassed its previous high of -13.71mn in the week of 17 January 2025.
- Investment Firms net short positioning declined sharply on the week to -311,934 from -737,664 the week prior.
- Commercial Undertakings raised their net long positioning for the second consecutive week to a fresh high, with positioning now at 16.37mn from 13.46mn in week of 7 February.
- German March power contract declined by around 7.75% on the week at the end of 14 February amid warmer temperatures, which dropped TTF and EU ETS costs.
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EGBS: Spreads Within 0.5bps Of Friday's Levels
Jan-20 09:02
10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are within 0.5bps of Friday’s closing levels, with GGBs modestly outperforming.
- The OAT/Bund spread remains at 78bps, following last week’s general policy address and unsuccessful censure motion against the Bayrou government.
- PM Bayrou’s survival has removed some short-term political uncertainty, allowing a little risk premium to be priced out of OATs (the spread reached a closing high of 84bps last Monday).
- However, medium-term political and fiscal risks remain prevalent in France and the passing of a budget (touted for the end of January) is the next hurdle for Bayrou.
- The BTP/Bund spread is currently 111bps. Last week’s softer-than-expected US CPI drove a pullback in year-end ECB implied rates and a renewed rally in European equities, helping the spread fully unwind its early-January widening.
- A reminder that MNI looks for syndications from Austria, Finland and Spain this week. Books are already open for today’s dual-trance 3/10-year EFSF transaction.
BONDS: Non-committal Trade Thus Far
Jan-20 08:57
Skittish early Monday trade, with EGBs digesting familiar rhetoric from the hawkish wing of the ECB (Schnabel & Holzmann), while looking ahead to Trump’s inauguration.
- German & UK yields within 1bp of Friday’s close across the curve.
- The observance of the MLK holiday in the U.S. means that cash Tsys are closed until Asia hours.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Jan-20 08:50
Of note:
EURUSD 1.4bn at 1.0300/1.0325.
EURUSD 2.5bn at 1.0300/1.0325 (tue).
USDJPY 1.3bn at 156.00 (tue).
AUDUSD 1.69bn at 0.6210 (wed).
EURUSD 3.24bn at 1.0295/1.0320 (thu).
- EURUSD: 1.0300 (1.02bn), 1.0325 (475mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6185 (550mln).
- NZDUSD: 0.5660 (329mln).
- USDZAR: 18.7000 (300mln).
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