FOREX: Intra-Day GBPUSD Weakness Extends, Key Support Just Below 1.34
Aug-29 10:16
- In most recent trade, the US dollar is back on the front foot, weighing most notably on sterling which allows GBPUSD to extend intra-day declines to 0.41%. Despite the dip, spot remains comfortably off Wednesday’s lows at 1.3417 and key short-term support of 1.3391, the Aug 22 low.
- A break lower would signal scope for a move towards 1.3315, the 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg. Furthermore, trendline support drawn from the year’s lows would then come back into focus, of which a breach may threaten the broader medium-term uptrend that has been evident this year. This level intersects around 1.3290.
- We previously noted that JP Morgan remains of the view that investors should be using any GBP rallies to set up bearish multi-month exposure covering the UK budget. As part of JPM’s macro trade recommendations, they suggest keeping GBP shorts vs EUR, CHF, NOK & SEK.
- Separately, ING note that an indication that French politics is having a limited FX impact is EURGBP, which has faced only limited downside pressure since the start of the week. ING thinks a test of 0.86 remains possible, even though their longer-term view is less optimistic on GBP given the possibility of a dovish rethink of BoE cuts later in the autumn. For GBPUSD, they still think a structural break above 1.35 is a matter of when rather than if.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Bear Threat Remains Present
Jul-30 10:13
- In FX, EURUSD is trading closer to its recent lows following the sharp sell-off on Monday. Tuesday’s extension resulted in a move through key support at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1560. A clear break of this EMA would signal a stronger reversal and open 1.1431, 23.6% of the Feb 3 - Jul 1 bull cycle. Note that medium-term trend indicators continue to highlight an uptrend. The bull trigger is 1.1829, the Jul 1 high.
- A bearish set-up in GBPUSD remains intact. The bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1 and highlights a clear break of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low. The breach opens 1.3245, the May 19 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3467, the 50-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place. The recovery that started Jul 24 signals the end of the corrective phase between Jul 16 - 24. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at 149.18, the Jul 16 high. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. First support is at 147.07, the 20-day EMA.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI examines the BOJ's possible rate-hike timing
Jul-30 10:08
MNI examines the BOJ's possible rate-hike timing - On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
STIR: Dutch DTCs to become tradable on Euronext Amsterdam
Jul-30 10:07
- The DSTA has also announced that "DTCs with a maturity date in 2026 and onwards will become tradeable on Euronext Amsterdam". This is "in order to promote liquidity and broaden investor access to money market
instruments issued by the Dutch State." - 2025 maturity DTCs will still not be exchange-tradable on Euronext.
- The first listed DTC will be the new 6-month Jan 29, 2026 DTC which is due for auction on Monday 4 August.
