US DATA: Initial Jobless Claims Remain Remarkably Steady At Low Level
Initial jobless claims were remarkably steady in the latest week of data, while the prior pickup in continuing claims was largely reversed. Overall the data show no signs of deterioration versus what was already a low-hiring, low-firing labor market.
- In one of the first pieces of data since the start of the war in the Middle East (and yes, it's still early to expect any labor market impact), initial claims for the Mar 7 week printed 213k, below the 215k expected and a shade lower than the 214k prior (which has been revised up by 1k).
- This is the third consecutive week of either 213k or 214k prints and the 4-week moving average is now clearly moving lower after a late Jan/early Feb jump: at 212k (216k prior) it's the lowest since the week of Jan 24. NSA claims fell 8.1k (to 206k), typical for the week if perhaps somewhat on the low side for the level of claims, with no peculiar state-level changes.
- Continuing claims fell 21k in the week of Feb 28 to 1,850k (almost exactly the 1,849k expected), with a small upward revision to prior of 3k to 1,871k.
- The prior week had marked a 7-week high but with the latest fade it seems clear the series is basically rangebound between 1,820-1,900k which is on average below the 1,900k+ figures seen through the latter half of 2025 and roughly that seen between 2024-early 2025. Again there were no seasonal oddities of note with the NSA drop of 66k (to 2,146k).
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INTERNATIONAL TRADE: USTR On USMCA, China Trade, India & Indonesia Deals
Speaking to Fox Business Network, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says that the US is entering talks with Mexico "right now" regarding the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade deal re-negotiation. Says that negotiations will continue on a bilateral basis. Acknowledges that amid cratering ties with Canada, talks on the USMCA with Ottawa are "more challenging". Trump's latest threat to stop the opening of a bridge linking Canada and the US risks further deterioration, with Greer saying the President has 'valid concerns'.
- On trade with India, Greer claims that India is "very committed" to the interim deal announced last week. Significant questions remain on the details of the agreement in relation to oil, energy and agricultural products. Greer claims that India has already "started winding down purchases of Russian energy", and that the US has talked to the gov't of PM Narendra Modi about oil from Venezuela. Says as part of a change in global trade flows, India could be a stationg to shift supply chains around.
- Greer says that he has regular talks with his Chinese counterparts, and that more discussions should be expected ahead of the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in April. Calls the US-China trade relationship "stable".
- Claims that he expected Indonesia to be the next "big one" in terms of trade deals, with the finalisation of an agreement "in the next couple of weeks." Indonesia’s envoy for International Trade and Multilateral Cooperation, Mari Pangestu, said to CNA last week that Jakarta would be looking for preferential access to US markets below the proposed 19% 'reciprocal' tariff previously announced by Trump.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
- EUR/USD: Feb11 $1.1820-30(E1.2bln), $1.2000(E1.8bln); Feb12 $1.1750(E1.3bln); Feb13 $1.1800(E2.7bln), $1.1850(E2.5bln), $1.1950(E2.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Feb11 Y156.45-60($2.2bln); Feb13 Y155.00($1.2bln), Y156.00($1.2bln), Y158.50($1.6bln), Y159.00($2.0bln), Y160.00($3.1bln)
- AUD/USD: Feb13 $0.6800(A$1.6bln)
- USD/CNY: Feb12 Cny6.9000($1.1bln); Feb13 Cny6.9700($1.2bln)
STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: SOFR White Pack
- 4,000 SOFR White packs (SFRH6-SFRZ6) +0.005 at 0658:57ET, most likely swap-tied seller with spreads running wider in the short end
