ASIA STOCKS: Inflows Falter Into Month End, SEA Weighed By Oil Price Concerns

• China's 10-Yr bond future has surged +.09 to 108.315, breaking above a key tech level.  
• The gains see it back above the 20-day EMA of 108.27, which it failed to hold above back in mid March.
• The 2-Yr bond future is up  +.04 at 102.546 to further consolidate it's position above all major moving averages.  
• The 10-Yr CGB remains around 1.81% and has traded in a range of 1.75 - 1.83% in March.  
• Risk sentiment is relatively weak in China today with the HSI down -1.1%, the CSI 300 down -0.27% whilst Shanghai is up +0.08% and bucking the trend.  

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The EUR/USD range Friday night was 1.1502-1.1545, Asia is currently trading around 1.1510. The pair traded heavily into the weekend but as of yet has been unable to break back below the 1.1500 support. The pair remains above its pivotal support in the 1.14-1.15 area for now but I still prefer to be fading bounces as Europe looks to be at the epicenter of the global supply issues. On the day, I would be looking for sellers back toward 1.1535-1.1565 initially, expecting a challenge of the support around 1.1500. A sustained break below 1.1500 and the market will again be looking to test the important 1.1400 area. Some Corporate month-end demand for USD’s could be seen today which could potentially add to the EUR headwinds. Some decent optionality though between 1.1450 & 1.1500 pinning the price for now.

• Steve Burns on X: “WSJ - "More expensive oil is bad for Europe, Japan and Korea, all big importers. It is actually a net benefit to the U.S., as an exporter and the world’s biggest producer."
• CFTC Data up to 24/03/26 shows the Leveraged community continuing to add to their recently acquired short EUR exposure, -56 039(Last -49 544). Asset managers continue to pare back their core long exposure, +308 301(Last +317 076).
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 1.1450(EU869m), 1.1550(EU963m), 1.1700(EU1.07b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 1.1450(EU2.55b April 1), 1.1500(EU4.06b April 1), 1.1700(EU2.78b April 1) - BBG
• The EUR/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 74 Points

Fig 1 : EUR/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P