US DATA: Inflation Concerns See Consumers Eye Earlier Purchases
Dec-06 15:10
- The preliminary U.Mich consumer survey for December saw sentiment firm a little more than expected at 74.0 (cons 73.3) after 71.8.
- Components were mixed though, with a much stronger than expected increase in current conditions (77.7 vs cons 65.2 after 63.9) at the expense of expectations (71.6 vs cons 77.7 after 76.9).
- From the press release: "A surge in buying conditions for durables led Current Economic Conditions to soar more than 20%. Rather than a sign of strength, this rise in durables was primarily due to a perception that purchasing durables now would enable buyers to avoid future price increases"
- "The expectations index continued the post-election re-calibration that began last month, climbing for Republicans and declining for Democrats in December"
- Reflecting this, 1Y inflation expectations were stronger than expected at 2.9% (cons 2.7) after 2.6% in November was the lowest since Dec 2020.
- The 5-10Y inflation expectations meanwhile dipped a tenth to 3.1% as expected for back into their more typical 2.9-3.1% range. The 3.2% in Nov was a joint high with Nov’23 at levels last seen in 2011.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'24 5Y Sale
Nov-06 15:08
- -7,635 FVZ4 106-19, sell through 106-19.25 post time bid at 1000:15ET, DV01 $318,000. The 5Y contract trades 106-20.5 last
BTP: BTP/Bund Spread Widening Persists
Nov-06 15:06
The 10-year BTP/Bund spread is now 7.5bps wider today at 132bps, as European extend lower.
- The spread is at its widest since October 9, after reaching a low of ~117bps on October 18. The late-October widening was in part driven by hawkish ECB repricing following the stronger-than-expected flash Eurozone Q3 GDP and October inflation data.
- BTP futures are off intraday lows, but remain -51 ticks today at 118.82.
US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Dec'24 30Y Covered Put
Nov-06 15:05
- 10,000 USZ4 115 puts, 103 vs. 115-18/0.42% at 1001:00ET
