OIL: Industry Data Show Ongoing US Oil & Fuel Destocking

• RES 3: 95.568 - 61.8% retracement Oct’ 25 - Jan’ 26 downleg
• RES 2: 95.465 - 50.0% retracement Oct’ 25 - Jan’ 26 downleg
• RES 1: 95.425 - High Dec 1 ‘25 (cont)
• PRICE: 94.850 @ 16:51 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 94.780 - Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 94.664 - 76.4% retracement of the 2008 - 2020 rally
• SUP 3: 94.057 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Aussie 10-yr futures stepped lower again at the open Monday, hitting new multi-year lows on the continuation contract. This weakness confirms the upleg posted off the late January lows as corrective in nature. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend, exposing historic support into 99.664, the 76.4% retracement for the post-Global Financial Crisis range. 

NZGB yields have started Monday trade with a firmer bias, led by the back end. We are around 1-3bps firmer, with the 10yr near 4.78%. This followed a mixed US lead in Tsy yields from Friday, with front end yields down sharply, despite a further surge in oil prices. Equity markets were down sharply, which may have helped reduce the oil impact at the front end from a risk aversion standpoint. The US 2yr lost 7bps to 3.91%, while the 10yr edged a little higher to 4.43%, but was volatile (intra session highs on Friday were at 4.48%). 

• Oil prices have opened up firmer this morning, while US equity futures are lower. Concerns after the Houthis joining the conflict and threatening another oil route is a driver of sentiment.
• For the NZ 10yr, upside focus is likely to rest around the 4.88% region, which marked earlier March highs. beyond that lies the 5.00% handle. We haven't been above this level in a meaningful way since 2023.
• The two year remains off recent highs, last near 3.62% (earlier March highs were at 3.74%). The 2/10s NZGB curve is around +117bps, so largely holding a sideways trend in the past week or so. 

• On the data front, we had Feb filled jobs a short while ago. We rose 0.3%m/m, but the Jan outcome was revised back to flat (originally reported as a 0.2% gain). Tomorrow the ANZ business confidence and activity figures for March prints. 

   

• RES 3: 95.900 - High Jan 8 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 95.676 - 50-dma
• RES 1: 95.653 - 23.6% retracement Oct - Mar Downleg (cont)
• PRICE: 95.185 @ 16:43 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 95.035 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 95.011 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 94.410 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Markets have steadied above lows Monday on the back of Trump’s claims that he’s pursuing talks with Iran, however the broader trend themes remain negative for prices. Resistance to watch has shifted lower, with 95.653 representing the 23.6% retracement for the downleg posted off the October high on the continuation contract. A clear break of it would signal a short-term reversal. The bear mode set-up in MA studies is highlighting a dominant downtrend. In addition, any weakness through year-to-date lows at 95.560 has prompted further downside, opening vol-band support into 94.410.