India’s diesel exports to Southeast Asia for May are set to hit the highest in at least four years, as higher freight costs deterred shipments to Europe, Reuters reports.

Source: Reuters
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BNP (19th June) 60p, sold at 4.43 in 5.5k.
There was little net reaction in EUR rates to the small upward surprise in French flash April HICP (0.8% Y/Y vs 0.7% cons, 0.9% prior). Although the French data follows a higher-than-expected Spanish print yesterday, we wrote in our preview that the bar to major market reactions to the April inflation figures was quite high, given ECB Governing Council focus on the negative growth implications of higher trade barriers.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-25 | 1.922 | -24.5 |
| Jul-25 | 1.791 | -37.6 |
| Sep-25 | 1.644 | -52.3 |
| Oct-25 | 1.596 | -57.1 |
| Dec-25 | 1.537 | -63.0 |
| Feb-26 | 1.528 | -63.9 |
| Mar-26 | 1.519 | -64.8 |
| Apr-26 | 1.528 | -63.9 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||