OIL: India Crude Imports from Russia Rise in Nov Ahead Sanctions Deadline

The German IFO Export Expectations index fell by 0.6 points to 2.8 in October. While the index is off its cycle lows, IFO continues to remain on the pessimistic side regarding German export prospects, commenting "there is no real recovery in sight."

• IFO commentary in September already suggested improvement last month may have been a one-off at least to some extent.
• Across sectors: "The metal industry is feeling the pressure from abroad particularly acutely, with companies expecting exports to decline. The chemical and paper industries anticipate a decline in exports. Although expectations in mechanical engineering and the food industry are better than in the previous month, actual export growth has yet to materialize. In contrast, the automotive industry continues to be very optimistic about international business, with export expectations rising once again. Manufacturers of electrical equipment also expect to increase their exports."
• As a % of nominal GDP on a 12-month rolling basis, the trade surplus extended its current downtrend, at 4.7% as of August, 1.2pp below levels seen around a year ago. That compares with a 2015 high of 8.0% and 2022 low of 2.1%.

• With early strength in Bunds, worth noting the next minor resistance level comes in at 130.07 (Friday's high), followed by 130.59 (October high). Meanwhile first support is unchanged at 129.13.
• The ECB Lending Survey and inflation expectations releases are due, although the focus will be on more supply.
• SUPPLY: UK sells £1.5bn of 2035 Gilt Linker (won't impact Gilt), Italy sells €2bn 2027 BTPs (equates to 15k 2yr BTP) could weigh on the contract into the bidding deadline, while the 2036 Linker won't impact BTP. Germany sells €4bn of 2030 bonds (equates to 33.8k Bobl) should weigh on Bobl. Lastly, US sells $44bn of 7yr Notes.
• SYNDICATION: Slovak Republic 12yr Benchmark.
• SPEAKERS: ECB's Panetta - however the Governing Council remain inside the media blackout period, so is unlikely to comment on policy

• Early risk-off trade is helping feed through to a bid in core EGBs, as Bunds, Gilts and US Treasuries all edge to new respective daily highs. Some of the risk-off stemming from early pressure in the banking sector, with BNP Paribas dropping another 3% after disclosing their exposure to a "specific" credit issue as part of their earnings release.
• BNP Paribas are one of the most highly weighted firms in the EuroStoxx Banking Index, which shifts focus to yesterday's opening gap in the price down at 225.28.