LATVIA: Incoming PM Unveils Cabinet Picks

• RES 4: 1.4015 High Dec 2 ‘25
• RES 3: 1.3985 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3878/3967 High Apr 13 / High Mar 31 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3749 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 1.36397 @ 08:56 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 1.3631/30 Low Apr 21 / 76.4% of the Mar 9 - 31 bull leg
• SUP 2: 1.3526 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3430 2.0% 10-dma envelope

The short-term bear cycle in USDCAD remains in play and the pair is trading just above its recent lows. A break through 1.3631, the Apr 21 low, would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 1.3526, the Mar 9 low. Initial resistance is seen at 1.3749, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to instead signal a short-term reversal.

Contained moves in 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds this morning, with limited impact from Friday’s ratings decisions:

• As expected, S&P downgraded Belgium to AA- (Outlook Stable). The move reflected “persistent imbalances in Belgium's public finances”. S&P "expect budgetary consolidation to be gradual, politically sensitive, and subject to execution risks. The 2025 budget measures were insufficient to offset rising spending on age-related items and defense and interest payments, with the deficit widening to about 5.2% of GDP in 2025 from 4.4% in 2024.”
• S&P also changed revised Finland’s Outlook to Negative (rating affirmed at AA+), despite Government commitment to consolidation measures. “We revised the outlook to negative to reflect risks to Finland's public finances from a combination of spending pressures and weak growth. Despite authorities' adoption of its Medium-Term Plan (MTP) that built on its Government Programme and General Government Fiscal Plan, including substantial consolidation efforts, we think policymakers could continue to face difficulties in putting general government debt on a steadily decreasing trend” 

• RES 4: 0.7305 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low 
• RES 3: 0.7277 2.0% Upper Bollinger Band
• RES 2: 0.7222 High Apr 17 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.7186 High Apr 21 
• PRICE: 0.7175@ 08:47 BST Apr 27
• SUP 1: 0.7092 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.7030 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6899 Low Apr 7 
• SUP 4: 0.6833 Low Mar 30 and a key support 

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains in play and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The setup in the 20- and 50-day EMAs is positive, and continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. 0.7103, the 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - 30 bear leg, has been cleared, as well as the bull trigger at 0.7187, the Mar 11 high. First key support to watch lies at 0.7030, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would undermine the bull theme.