EURGBP TECHS: Impulsive Bull Cycle
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8462 High Jan 24
- RES 2: 0.8419 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8411 High Mar 6
- PRICE: 0.8393 @ 06:32 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 0.8360/8324 Low Mar 6 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A strong rally in EURGBP from its recent lows highlights a short-term reversal. The cross has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The impulsive rally this week signals scope for an extension towards 0.8419, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8326, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low.
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SCHATZ TECHS: (H5) Bull Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 107.233 76.4% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 3: 107.170 High Dec 20
- RES 2: 107.081 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 15 bear leg
- RES 1: 107.045 High Jan 3
- PRICE: 106.930 @ 05:38 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 106.805 Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 106.703 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 106.515 Low Jan 30
- SUP 4: 106.435 Low Jan 15 and key support
Schatz futures traded sharply higher Monday, marking an extension of the bull cycle that began Jan 15. The contract has traded through a number of important resistance points and the latest impulsive gains highlight a stronger reversal. The focus is on 107.081, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 106.724, the 20-day EMA. First support is 106.805, Monday’s intraday low.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 05-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global Services/Composite PMI (Final) |
| 06-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06-Feb | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 06-Feb | 1230 | BOE MPR press conference | |
| 06-Feb | 1400 | Decision Maker Panel data | |
| 07-Feb | 1215 | BOE's Pill at National MPC Agency briefing | |
| 11-Feb | 0001 | Jan | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 11-Feb | 0845 | BOE's Mann lecture on Economic Prospects | |
| 11-Feb | 1215 | BOE Bailey's speech on changes in financial markets | |
| 12-Feb | 1500 | BOE's Greene speech at Institute of Directors | |
| 13-Feb | 0700 | Dec | GDP/Trade/ Services/ Production/ Construction |
| 13-Feb | 0700 | Q4 | GDP First Estimate |
| 18-Feb | 0700 | Dec/Jan | Labour Market Survey |
| 19-Feb | 0001 | Jan | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 19-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Consumer inflation report |
| 19-Feb | 0700 | Jan | Producer Prices |
GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.2667 High Dec 19
- RES 3: 1.2610 38.2% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 swing
- RES 2: 1.2576 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2503/23 50-day EMA / High Jan 27 and key resistance
- PRICE: 1.2479 @ 06:18 GMT Feb 5
- SUP 1: 1.2249 Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 1.2161 Low Jan 17 / 20
- SUP 3: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
Resistance in GBPUSD remains intact and the recent pullback highlights a potential bearish threat. The move down signals the end of the Jan 13 - 27 correction and note that 1.2503, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. Furthermore, MA studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2100, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. A clear break of the 50-day average would alter the picture.
