NORWAY: Improvement In Industrial Confidence In Q2
Statistics Norway’s industrial confidence indicator picked up to 3.9 in Q2 (vs a 0.6 point upwardly revised 0.6 prior), the highest since Q1 2022 and above the historical average of 2.9. This is indicative of an increase in activity in the quarter ahead.
- The increase follows a recovery in manufacturing industrial production momentum in 2024. Meanwhile, we suspect that the 4-point fall in the manufacturing PMI to 47.7 in June was more noise than signal.
- Capital and consumer goods manufacturers drive the improvement in industrial confidence, expecting increased production in Q3.
- In Q2, capital goods producers drove activity. The survey notes that “The growth for manufacturers of investment goods in the last two years has been largely driven by the construction of oil platforms and modules industry”.
- Industrial managers generally reported increases in cost pressures, which were partially pass-on through higher prices. However, the survey notes that “there are reports of declining profitability”.
- Capacity utilisation was estimated at 78.5% at the end of Q2, up from 78% in Q1 but still below the historical average of 80%.
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US TSYS: US TSY 42D AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $234 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
- US TSY 42D AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $234 MLN FROM $60.000 BLN TOTAL
FRANCE: Latest Ifop Poll: RN: 36% (=), NFP: 28.5% (-1), Ensemble: 21% (+0.5%)
The latest rolling opinion poll from Ifop ahead of the presidential election shows little change from yesterday's publication. The right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (RN) and its allies sit in first place on 36%, the same score as yesterday. The leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance sits in second on 28.5% (down 1%), and the centrist Ensemble bloc of President Emmanuel Macron is in third place on 21% (up 0.5%). The conservative Les Republicains and other parties of the centre-right sit on 6.5% (down 0.5%).
- If these results were reflected in the 30 June and 7 July elections it would likely result in RN emerging as the largest party, but short of a majority. This would risk either a minority RN gov't or political paralysis presaging a technocratic gov'.t
Chart 1. Ifop Poll 25 June, %
Source: Ifop
US: Business And Economic Establishment Remains Sceptical Of Trump
Former President Donald Trump may have repaired some bridges with business leaders, but no Fortune 100 CEOs have financially backed his campaign, a major reversal from the three elections prior to 2016 when 30–40 CEOs backed the Republican candidate – a sign that corporate American remains sceptical of his agenda.
- Axios reports: “It's easy to overstate how much America's business establishment supports Donald Trump. Just because corporate America has serious issues with President Biden doesn't mean they're in Trump's camp,” adding that, “Roughly two-thirds of CEOs are registered Republicans, but they're not MAGA.”
- Jeffrey Sonnenfeld writes in a New York Times op-ed: “Trump continues to suffer from the lowest level of corporate support in the history of the Republican Party.”
- Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists, led by Joseph Stiglitz, have penned a letter warning that Trump’s agenda could exacerbate inflation: "While each of us has different views..., we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump.”
- "We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.'s economic standing in the world, and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.'s domestic economy... There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets."
