TURKEY: Impact of Iran War Already Filtering Through to Domestic Food Prices

Although Q4 mainland GDP at 0.4% Q/Q was a little below Norges Bank’s 0.5% projection, full year 4Q/4Q growth of 1.8% exceeded the central bank’s forecast by two tenths. Statistics Norway notes that “growth in 2025 was close to what we consider to be a normal growth rate”. Overall, this adds to the marginally hawkish message from the national accounts, when taken alongside the 2025 annual earnings data covered earlier.

• Headline GDP growth was -0.3% Q/Q (vs 1.3% prior), though note that inventories pulled growth down by a notable 3.0pp
• Across the main expenditure categories, consumption was weaker than expected in Q4. Household consumption rose 1.0% Q/Q, below Norges Bank’s 3.7% projection. Although Statistics Norway suggests there was some front-loading of EV purchases ahead of January’s VAT rise, this dynamic may have been smaller than expected. Note that import growth was also lower than expected at 3.7% Q/Q (vs 5.8% Norges Bank). For 2025 overall, consumption rose 2.8%, below Norges Bank’s 3.3% estimate.
• Elsewhere, investment growth was solid, with business investment rising 6.7% Q/Q (vs 1.8% Norges). For 2025 overall, business investment was essentially in line at 1.9% (vs 1.8% Norges). Statistics Norway highlights investment growth in electricity, gas and hot water supply and industry and mining, with services investment estimated to be broadly flat.
• Housing investment was stronger than expected in Q4 (2.0% Q/Q vs -0.3% exp), but still weaker for 2025 overall (-3.6% vs -1.5% exp). This is the third year of weak housing investment activity, a dynamic that has pushed up the prices of homes in the secondary market.
• Headline and mainland employment growth was 0.16% Q/Q, marginally above Norges Bank’s 0.12% projection. Meanwhile, total mainland hours worked fell 0.04%. This meant real productivity per hour was up a solid 0.46% Q/Q.
• See the table below for further national account details. 

• RES 4: 6134.00 1.382 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 12 - 18 price swing     
• RES 3: 6100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6086.00 High Feb 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 6051.00 High Feb 9      
• PRICE: 6050.00 @ 08:12 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 5870.81/5865.00 50-day EMA / Intraday low      
• SUP 2: 5838.00 Low Jan 20 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 5750.00 Low Dec 23 
• SUP 4: 5689.00 Low Dec 18    

The medium-term trend condition in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains bullish and for now, the latest pullback appears corrective. Key support lies at the 50-day EMA at 5870.81. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. The bull trigger is at 6086.00, the Jan 3 high. A move through this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.

• RES 4: 121.87 2.000 proj of the Dec 10 - 17 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 121.58 1.764 proj of the Dec 10 - 17 - 22 price swing
• RES 2: 121.37 High Nov 13
• RES 1: 121.30/31 High Feb 6 / Jan 30
• PRICE: 121.15 @ 08:10 GMT Feb 9
• SUP 1: 120.50 Trendline drawn from the Dec 10 low           
• SUP 2: 119.45 Low Dec 22 
• SUP 3: 119.13 Low Dec 10 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 118.00 Round number support 

A bullish theme in BTP futures remains intact and short-term pullbacks appear to have been corrective. Resistance to watch is 121.37, the Nov 13 high. Clearance of it would strengthen the bullish theme. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose 120.50, a short-term trendline support drawn from the Dec 10 low. Clearance of this trendline would be bearish and undermine the bull theme plus signal scope for a deeper retracement.