MIDEAST: IDF Spox-'Many More Targets Left' After Claims IRGC Naval Cmdr Killed

• In FX, EURUSD is unchanged and a S/T bear cycle remains intact. Recent weakness signals scope for an extension towards 1.1693, 76.4% of the Jan 19 -0 27 bull leg. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. This suggests that the entire bear leg since Jan 27, is likely a correction. Key S/T resistance to watch is 1.1929, the Feb 10 high. A break of this level would be bullish.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish. Sights are on 1.3439 (pierced), the 50.0% retracement of the Nov 4 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull cycle. A clear break of this price point would open 1.3331, the Jan 19 low and a key support. Initial resistance is at 1.3578, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would be a possible early reversal signal.
• USDJPY continues to trade above key short-term support at 152.10, the Jan 27 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal and resume the bear cycle that started Jan 14. For now, a bull cycle is in play. The latest recovery has delivered a print above the 50-day EMA, at 155.27. A continuation higher would highlight a stronger reversal and open 157.76, the Feb 9 high.

• US rates continue to hold a pattern of relatively hawkish near-term rate cut prospects (13.5bp of cuts out to June) but rate cut momentum picking up in 2H26, a path bolstered by yesterday’s risk-off.
• Cumulative cuts from 3.64% effective: 1bp Mar, 4bp Apr, 13.5bp Jun, 25bp Jul, 39bp Sep, 47.5bp Oct and 58bp Dec.
• SOFR futures are 0.5-1.5 ticks lower on the day, with a terminal implied yield of 3.015% (M7, +1bp) only nudging from yesterday’s joint lowest close since November.
• There is a heavy Fedspeak schedule today with our focus on Governor Cook (voter) speaking on AI at an annual NABE economic policy.
  • 0800ET – Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’27 voter) on the economy. On Feb 17 he reiterated his post-CPI comments that the January report had some encouraging bits but also some concerns, with still pretty high services inflation. "I do think that if this proves to be transitory, and we can show that we're on path back to 2% inflation, I still think there's several more rate cuts that can happen in 2026, but we've got to see it".
  • 0900ET – Boston Fed’s Collins (non-voter) opening remarks
  • 0900ET – Atlanta Fed’s Bostic (retiring end-Feb) in a moderated discussion
  • 0915ET – Gov. Waller (voter, dove) gives a keynote address at a conference on finance and payments. He said yesterday that he views March meeting as a “coin flip” between needing to hold or cut and that it will ultimately depend on February jobs and inflation reports.
  • 0930ET – Gov. Cook (voter) speaks on AI (text + Q&A). She said on Feb 4 that she views current monetary policy as “mildly restrictive”. "At this time, I see risks as tilted toward higher inflation. […] [T]here is an argument for being optimistic about the path of inflation, but, until I see stronger evidence that inflation is moving sustainably back down to target, that is where my focus will be, in the absence of unexpected changes in the labor market”.
  • 0930ET – Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV
  • 1515ET – Richmond Fed’s Barkin (’27 voter) and Boston Fed’s Collins on panel 

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