J.P.Morgan suggest that today’s estimated tax deadline should drive “money market fund and deposit outflows, adding upward pressure on funding.”
- They note that Treasury data through Friday showed “$21bn in electronically-filed income taxes. More than half of the total non-withheld tax payments should be concentrated between April 11 and April 17”.
- They go on to highlight that “expectations around tax receipts this year are rather variable, given the strong growth and asset returns last year contrasted with ongoing spending and staffing cuts at the IRS. Electronic filings give us the most timely read on how individual taxes are tracking relative to the last few years, as they are processed faster. While it is still early in the process, electronic filings suggest that tax deposits thus far are tracking somewhere between the robust 2022 tax season and the more average 2024 season. While non-electronic payments are tracking closer to the more average levels seen in 2024, we note that these returns tend to be processed only after tax day, and disproportionately on Tuesdays. The next three days will be critical in order to get a more complete picture of the strength of tax receipts relative to prior years”.