HUF: EURHUF Spikes to Fresh High on the Week
Topside momentum for EURHUF (+0.15%) has accelerated through yesterday’s highs, as the forint continues to struggle despite the more positive risk sentiment across global markets (evidenced by additional China stimulus measures, growing prospects of an Israel-Lebanon cease-fire and a rally in major equity indices).
- The cross stands around 0.8% higher compared to the week’s earlier lows, with initial resistance marked at 397.66, the Sep 10 high. A break here would set sights on key resistance at 399.21, the Aug 5 high.
- The NBH released the full inflation report this morning, though the headline inflation projections had already been revealed in Tuesday’s policy statement.
- Local data releases are thin for the remainder of the week, with focus shifting to the slate of Fed and ECB speakers due later today.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BONDS: MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Flat/Long Pre-Roll
We've just published our latest MNI Europe Pi Positioning Indicator (PDF here):
- As we head into the quarterly Eurex roll (last trade for Sept contracts is Sep 6th), European bond futures structural positioning is largely flat.
- Longs built in early August have evaporated, with the exception of Bund and Gilt.
- Last week saw mixed indicative trade, with some longs set and some short covering across various contracts.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURGBP 2.58bn at 0.8475.
EURUSD 1.34bn at 1.1150.
EURUSD 3.43bn at 1.1150/1.1200 (wed).
USDJPY 3.51bn at 145.25/145.50 (wed).
AUDNZD 1.98bn at 1.0920 (thu).- EURUSD: 1.1100 (1bn), 1.1150 (1.34bn), 1.1170 (447mln).
- EURGBP: 0.8440 (225mln), 0.8450 (404mln), 0.8475 (2.58bn).
- USDJPY: 144.30 (550mln), 144.80 (280mln), 144.90 (456mln), 145.20 (438mln).
- USDCAD: 1.3485 (434mln), 1.3550 (430mln).
GILTS: 10-year Gilt/Bund Spread Widens As UK Markets Catch Up
The 10-year Gilt/Bund spread has mechanically widened over 4bps this morning to 174bps, as UK markets catch-up with FI counterparts following yesterday’s Bank holiday. This week’s UK data calendar lacks tier 1 releases, with focus on remarks from BoE's resident hawk Mann, due to speak tomorrow in Frankfurt.
- A near 3% surge in crude futures following Libyan supply outages weighed on global FI yesterday.
- The UK cash curve has bear steepened, with yields 3.5 to 4.5bps higher.
- In futures, U4 remains the active contract, though the roll to Z4 will likely be complete by tomorrow/Thursday. U4 currently trades -41 ticks at 99.53, with Z4 -50 ticks at 98.98.
- Overnight, the BRC shop-sales index fell 0.3% Y/Y (vs 0.2% prior).
- A reminder that BoE Governor Bailey re-iterated the August MPS guidance in his Jackson Hole remarks on Friday, endorsing a “steady course” for monetary policy.
- UK PM Starmer is expected to deliver his “State of the Nation” speech at around 10am today.
