Pullbacks in Bund futures have been shallow, with tariff-related uncertainty and expectations for an ECB cut on Thursday somewhat offsetting pressure applied by this morning's European equity rally and sovereign supply calendar.
- Futures are +22 ticks at 131.26, down from session highs of 131.57. The bull trigger is defined at 132.03 (Apr 7 high), with the 20-day EMA at 129.73 continuing to provide support.
- German cash yields are within 1bp of yesterday’s closing levels, the curve lightly twist flattens.
- Germany will look to sell E4.5bln of the 2.40% Apr-30 Bobl at 1030BST. Finland also comes to the market this morning.
- The ECB’s Q1 BLS shouldn’t change expectations for a 25bp cut on Thursday, but may contribute to wording tweaks in the policy statement, with the results consistent with “meaningfully less restrictive” policy.
- EGB spreads to Bunds little changed to 3.0bp wider on the day. OATs outperform Bunds at the margin (0.5bp tighter), with little of note when it comes to French news flow. We don’t see a meaningful headline driver for the widening in GGBs (~3.0bp vs. Bunds to 88bps).
- This morning’s other data weren’t material market movers: The German April ZEW survey saw a much weaker than forecast expectations component (-14.0 vs 10.0 cons, 51.6 prior), owing to tariff uncertainty and a DAX pullback. February Eurozone IP was stronger-than-expected at 1.1% M/M (vs 0.3% cons, 0.6% prior).