US: House GOP To Discuss Healthcare Strategy Ahead Of Senate ACA Vote
Politico reports that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), “will hold a discussion with House GOP members this weekend about what could be included in a health care package as pressure builds to deal with the expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies.” Johnson will present a framework next Tuesday that will likely pull from various GOP proposals, per the report.
- Yesterday, House Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NY) and Jen Kiggans (R-FL) released their bipartisan pitch for a one-year extension of the subsidies and reforms. Politico reports that moderate Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) could soon release the text of his separate plan, which includes a two-year extension of the subsidies, with reforms.
- House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) said, “A lot of our members have different ideas. We’re putting them all together, and we’re going to come up with something...”
- Meanwhile, the Senate will hold a vote next week on the subsidies promised by Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) in return for moderate Senate Democrats striking a deal to reopen the government. Democrats are expected to propose a longer-term ‘clean’ extension of the ACA credits that is highly unlikely to gather the requisite 60 votes to pass.
- Punchbowl reports, “As of Thursday, Thune hadn’t decided whether Republicans will even offer an alternative to the Democratic proposal. Some GOP senators think it’s political malpractice not to present a plan that would avert massive premium hikes in the new year. Others don’t see a reason to engage in what is essentially a political exercise for Democrats...”
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FED: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $424 MLN FROM $69.000 BLN TOTAL
- US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $424 MLN FROM $69.000 BLN TOTAL
US TSYS: Extending Lows
- Treasuries are extending lows at the moment - tracking German Bunds with no obvious headline of Block driver, and unlikely comment from Fed Miran that: "DATA SUGGEST RATES CAN BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THEY ARE" while "KEEPING POLICY THAT RESTRICTIVE RUNS UNNECESSARY RISKS," Bbg.
- Currently, Dec'25 10Y contract trades -15 to 112-10 low, 10Y yield at 4.1532% (+.0681). A continuation lower would open 112-06, the Sep 25 low and the next key support.
UK: Labour Risks Falling To 3rd In Polls With Budget Statement Looming
The gov't faces a difficult few weeks ahead of the 26 November budget in the wake of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' Downing St. speech on 4 November that refused to rule out manifesto-breaking income tax/VAT/National Insurance increases. While there is likely to have been an element of needing to prepare the ground with the public and markets regarding the all-but-confirmed tax hikes (saying "each of us must do our bit for the security of our country and the brightness of its future"), coming three weeks before the budget means the looming spectre of tax increases will retain a dominant position in the news cycle.
- Comes amid the slow, but sustained decline in support for the centre-left Labour Party in opinion polling (see left chart below). Whereas Labour has trailed the right-wing populist Reform UK for several months, it has generally retained a comfortable advantage over the main opposition centre-right Conservatives. However, with the environmentalist Greens having recorded a spike in support under its new left-wing populist leader, Zack Polanski, largely at the expense of Labour, PM Sir Keir Starmer's party now risks being pushed into third place nationally.
- Should Labour's polling numbers slump even further post-Budget, it will put even greater pressure on Reeves and Starmer, and indeed a significantly negative public or market reaction could make Reeves' position untenable. Data from Smarkets shows bettors assigning a 40.6% implied probability that Starmer leaves office in 2026, with the May local elections viewed as a potential reckoning day for the PM.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling by Party, % and 6-Poll Moving Average (LHS) and Combined Vote Share for Labour and Conservatives in General Elections & Opinion Polling, % (RHS)
Source: More in Common, YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, Techne, Lord Ashcroft Polls, Focaldata, JL Partners, Freshwater Strategy, Survation, Ipsos, BMG Research, MNI
